Plug Power is benefiting from the fact that a variety of analysts view the company to be a front-runner in an American hydrogen economy in 2023/24 and one that should be very well positioned to produce green hydrogen through the development of its own electrolyzer capacity in the longer term. In nine years’ time, a revenue of USD 9 billion may even be possible. Until then, a hydrogen price of USD 1 per kilogram should be achievable, according to Evercore analyst James West.
The daily price fluctuations of the shares in the hydrogen and fuel cell sector discussed here – primarily those from the USA and Canada – give an indication that very different interests determine events here: Thus, on many days in July 2021, there was a concurrence of price declines with almost identical percentage losses in the prices of all these shares with manageable trading volumes at the same time. In other words: The buy side held back and the forces betting on falling prices had the upper hand. However, no selling pressure could be detected, which is reflected in the amount of shares traded.
A few months ago, Plug Power [Nasdaq: PLUG] was forced to revise several of its previously published financial statements. While the accounting errors were not severe enough to have a material impact on the statements, they resulted in a USD 62.9 million decrease in R&D costs in the years 2018 to 2020 and a corresponding rise in cost revenue. Furthermore, non-cash charges, including charges associated with warrants Plug granted to Amazon and Walmart, exceeded USD 400 million. That’s pretty notable. Do these charges have anything to do with Plug’s relatively high amount of short interest, which comes to over 50 million shares? Could Amazon and Walmart have exercised warrants? Or have they now shorted stock to shore up their unrealized gains running into the billions of dollars?
Plug Power [Nasdaq: PLUG] has undergone one financing round after another, with a third bought deal sandwiched in between, this time to the tune of more than USD 1.7 billion. What’s more, the South Korean SK Group has promised to put up USD 1.6 billion in return for a 9.9 percent ownership stake in the company, an investment that will also form a basis for a joint venture between the two corporations. And if that’s not enough, Plug, which is headquartered in the U.S., intends to fit out delivery vehicles for France’s Renault Group. Plus, the company has been busy buying in top talent for its management team. That’s the good news.
That was fast. First, Plug Power [Nasdaq: PLUG] raises around USD 840 million issuing new shares at USD 22.25 apiece. A felt five minutes later, the company is offered a USD 1 billion bought deal, perfectly exploiting the stock surge to collect massive capital. Plug must now have over USD 1.7 billion in the bank, thanks to the company’s growth prospects targeting hydrogen.
Technological breakthroughs and rosy prospects for growth may have raised expectations of the fuel cell companies described below, but their grossly undervalued stocks haven’t followed suit. Zooming out for a moment, there should be a greater focus on sustainability if the goal is to up the stock price. Instead, too much emphasis is placed on current financial results, specifically on the reports published each quarter. A pessimistic view of the next two years seems especially unjustified
Plug Power’s third-quarter results proved disappointing. The company said that the figures didn’t have any influence on its great prospects, considering a customer base which includes corporations as large as Walmart and Amazon. Their bookings are expected to top USD 600 million in the coming years. During the reporting period, Plug delivered 2,753 GenDrive systems for forklift retrofits, which generated USD 61.4 million in revenue. Current production capacity is at 15,000 systems per year, with 95 percent of them manufactured in-house. Ballard’s contribution has been reduced to a minimum.
The minus USD 0.11 per share was a much higher loss than the USD 0.06 that had been anticipated. The adjusted EPS is said to be at USD 0.08 per share. The company’s revenue increased to USD 32.6 million in the final quarter of 2016 – while USD 34.8 million had been expected. The net loss attributable to common shareholders (incl. large extraordinary items) added up to USD 57.6 million at USD 85.9 million in revenue. This fiscal year, GAAP revenue is expected to grow to USD 130 million. Where does the company go from here? The focus of Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) is the materials handling market, and it’s doing well on it regarding customers and bookings.
Hydrogenics (HYGS, US$9.50) already has that which Ballard is planning with Chinese firm CSR in the bag: the company is providing Alstom with FC technology for use in trains. Order value: minimum of US$50m. over a time frame of ten years.
In early May 2015, the company was also able to report a technological breakthrough with the presentation of the most powerful