Contact

A big opportunity for machinery manufacturers

By

December 14, 2020

Image titel:

Sources:

A big opportunity for machinery manufacturers

VDMA study analyzes fuel cell vehicle market

Starting in 2030, fuel cells will be making significant inroads in the passenger car, commercial vehicle and heavy equipment markets. Their importance, as well as the required hydrogen infrastructure, will grow steadily in the coming years, mainly thanks to heavy-duty applications. By 2040, the technology will power 12 percent of all vehicles sold in those markets, creating 68,000 new jobs in Europe in the process. These are the key takeaways from “Engine of change – Fuel cells’ impact on the machinery and industrial equipment industry and its suppliers,” a study conducted by FEV Consulting for Germany’s national engineering federation VDMA. Unlike battery-electric motors, fuel cells have quite a lot in common with internal combustion engines when it comes to production and supply chains, a boon to traditional automakers and machinery manufacturers.

Advertisements

Nevertheless, the regions and sectors analyzed in the study are moving at a very different pace. Japan and South Korea will continue to lead the market for passenger vehicles. By 2030, 6 percent of all cars sold in Japan will run on fuel cells, a share that will rise to over 20 percent by 2040. Besides setting strict well-to-wheel emissions limits, the Japanese government is pushing for social and political change in order to establish a hydrogen economy.

Fuel cell demand will not grow quite as fast in South Korea, where FCEVs will make up an estimated 3 percent of the market by 2030 and 14 percent by 2040. They will also contribute 2 percent to total sales in China by 2030 and 14 percent by 2040. In the United States and Europe, however, their share will remain below 1 percent in 2030 but rise to 10 percent by 2040.

Advertisements

The Zero Emission Vehicle Index developed by FEV Consulting indicates that China, Europe and the United States will have a chance to catch up to the first-mover markets later this decade. The index uses a variety of factors to determine the competitiveness of new engine designs compared to traditional ICEs. It shows that currently, battery-electric vehicles, also known as BEVs, are gaining traction in Europe and China and will, in the next two years, achieve a level of popularity that will allow them to easily compete with ICE cars. Fuel cells, FEV said, will reach 100 on the index in the 2030s, putting them on an equal footing with conventional powertrains.

“Our study shows that the FCEV and BEV markets are about 10 years apart,” said Michael Wittler, FEV’s principal consultant. Overall, the consultancy expects FCEV sales to grow from one to 10 million between 2030 and 2040. This translates into a 12 percent market share and an around 25 percent growth rate per year.

Strict emissions regulations

Heavy-duty equipment will play a key role in bringing fuel cells to market, mainly because of the strict emissions limits that are to be introduced in Europe, Japan and South Korea. The new rules will force automakers to sell a certain number of zero-emission vehicles each year. “In long-distance and heavy-duty transportation, it makes no sense at all to haul around a battery that weighs multiple tons. We simply need to come up with another approach,” Wittler said. He considers both fuel cells and hydrogen ICEs viable contenders for solving the weight issue.

It is still unclear which option will come out on top. In any case, what is more important than the choice between fuel cells and hydrogen-powered ICEs is that those who provide the refueling infrastructure can count on regular customers. “This is why heady-duty vehicles are so crucial,” Wittler said. Their energy-hungry engines will most likely more than make up for their comparatively low sales figures.

Additionally, fuel cells could very well take a notable chunk of the pie in non-road transportation, specifically in the forklift, railroad and maritime markets. Promising high daily operating hours, the technology is already in use in some forklift trucks. By 2030, FEV predicts that fuel cells will also power materials handling equipment with an output of 19 kilowatts or more.

From an industrial policy perspective, there are other benefits to producing fuel cell engines, as they have much more in common with ICEs than electric motors. “Fuel cell manufacturers rely on roughly the same supply chain components as companies making ICEs. Sometimes, the value added during production even slightly exceeds that of conventional engines,” said Wittler. In the BEV market, the value-add is considerably lower.

Total revenue potential in the passenger car market across the regions analyzed is expected to increase to nearly EUR 86 billion annually by 2040. FEV said that 68 percent of the estimated revenue will come from fuel cell stacks, balance-of-plant components and hydrogen tanks, while the other 32 percent will be generated by selling electric powertrains, including batteries and electric motors.

The manufacturing process itself will contribute 28 percent, that is, EUR 16 billion a year, to the fuel cell value chain, the study says. Crucial value-adding processes in the sector are forming, coating and methods that change material properties. This is especially true in stack component manufacture, which will add EUR 2.6 billion to the total by 2040. Work on these components, mainly on compressor/expander modules for fuel cell air systems, hydrogen control equipment, valves and gaskets, will come to EUR 5 billion a year. Another notable value-add is the production of composites used to make hydrogen tanks, a process estimated to contribute EUR 1 billion a year by 2040.

Similarities to combustion engines

Today’s automakers stand to benefit from the similarities between some fuel cell and ICE components, including turbochargers, instruments, valves and cooling systems or channels. For example, a vehicle’s fuel cell air system also contains a compressor/expander assembly. “This assembly could be delivered by companies manufacturing turbochargers. Both components serve similar functions and have similar designs,” said Wittler. In his view, the necessary changes to vehicle fleets will not be as dramatic as expected.

… Read more in the latest edition of H2-International October 2020

Author: Michael Nallinger

Kategorien: Germany

Here are interesting and current articles on the topic of hydrogen – stocks and the stock market!

Economic prospects for companies in the hydrogen sector | Future, stocks & hydrogen companies on the stock exchange and more…

Which hydrogen companies will prevail in the competitive market in the long term? Get tips and cartwheels and learn more about risks or opportunities. Our stock market specialist and expert author Sven Jösting reports critically, independently and competently.

Apr 11 2024

Bloom Energy convincing in the long haul

Bloom Energy is planning a cooperation with Shell to use its SOEC technology for the large-scale...
Apr 11 2024

Ballard – Prospects better than current market valuation

The share price of Ballard Power is at an all-time low. The published figures for the fourth...
Mar 18 2024

Search for the ideal hydrogen storage

Interview with Thomas Korn, CEO of water stuff & sun Startup company water stuff & sun has...
Mar 15 2024

Is exponential growth slowing down?

Fuel Cell Industry Review 2022 Year 2022 saw fuel cell shipments creep up over 2021 numbers,...
Mar 11 2024

On the way to becoming a green hydrogen partner

Oman aims to score points with H2 infrastructure Wind, sun and loads of expertise – these...
Mar 07 2024

We can master a scale-up for green hydrogen

Interview with Dr. Kai Fischer, Director at RWTH Aachen The efficient scaling of green hydrogen...
Mar 07 2024

Frustration over continuing uncertainties

Interview with Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, CEO of Hydrogen Europe There is a lot that needs sorting out...
Mar 05 2024

“If ever there was momentum for hydrogen, it is now”

Interview with Dr. Jochen Köckler, chairman of Deutsche Messe “We’re bringing people together.”...
Feb 28 2024

H2Direkt: Blueprint for heating with pure H2

The energy providers Thüga und Energie Südbayern (ESB) as well as Energienetze Bayern have...
Feb 26 2024

Just switch over?

Hydrogen in the existing natural gas network Whether hydrogen contributes to the clean heating...
Feb 26 2024

Pilot plant for coating bipolar plates

At Fraunhofer FEP (Fraunhofer-Institut für Organische Elektronik, Elektronenstrahl- und...
Feb 20 2024

55 MW electrolyzer to decarbonize Saarland

Hydrogen Regions series: HydroHub Fenne living lab The power plant site in Fenne, Völklingen, a...
Feb 20 2024

Chicken feathers as FC membrane material

Feathers from chickens or other poultry could in the future help make fuel cells more effective...
Feb 15 2024

SMEs demand more security

Guest article by André Steinau, CEO of GP Joule Hydrogen After all, the Ampel Coalition leading...
Feb 15 2024

Accelerated expansion of renewable energies

RED III is here – Elsewhere, the wait continues Progress is being made at EU level – albeit...
Feb 12 2024

Picea 2 relies on lithium instead of lead

HPS presents new product generation The company HPS Home Power Solutions has unveiled a new...
Feb 12 2024

H2 production by photocatalysis

The direct generation of hydrogen from sunlight has long been considered the most elegant solution...
Feb 05 2024

Regional instead of international

Hy-Fcell has it difficult asserting itself The aspiration of Landesmesse Stuttgart with Hy-Fcell...
Feb 01 2024

Hydrogeit Verlag turns 20 years old

Hydrogeit Verlag is proudly celebrating its 20th anniversary as a renowned specialist publisher in...
Jan 26 2024

Stracke other H2Now managing director

BMV Energy GmbH is entering the market as another player in hydrogen refueling stations. The...

0 Comments

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *