H2 industry must grow faster than PV by 2030

The realization that we need a lot of green hydrogen very quickly, not only in Germany and Europe, but also worldwide, is becoming more and more widespread. Germany has already made the decision to phase out nuclear energy and coal. And after Putin’s attack on Ukraine, natural gas is also under examination. The plan was to make the gas grid greener and greener. Now, there is discussion about a much faster ramp-up of the hydrogen economy. Which scenarios are conceivable for this?

In a paper by the climate research institute PIK (Potsdamer Institut für Klimafolgenforschung) presented at the H2-Kompass conference in Berlin February 2022, it is shown how the market ramp-up of hydrogen electrolysis might look. The authors, Gunnar Luderer, Falko Ueckerdt and Adrian Odenweller, determined that in the short and medium term (by 2030), green hydrogen will remain scarce, because a ramp-up of the production capacities needs to first occur. In the long term, however, hydrogen and e-fuels will play a leading role in achieving climate neutrality.

Among other things, the many scientists involved in this analysis have calculated what the growth rate in the electrolyzer sector should be to achieve the EU target of 40 GW electrolysis capacity by 2030. This would require a similarly rapid market ramp-up to that which took place years ago in the photovoltaic sector. That corresponds to a 42 to 82 percent annual growth. An increase of 15 to 39 percent, the case with wind power, would not be nearly enough.

It is considered problematic that for the H2 projects announced for implementation by 2023, no final investment decision has yet been made. Even a 30 percent success rate would make no visible contribution to achieving the 2030 climate targets, since only 1 GW would be installed by 2023.[…]

… Read this article to the end in the latest H2-International

Author: Sven Geitmann

1 thought on “H2 industry must grow faster than PV by 2030”

  1. You need to include Turquoise hydrogen in your calculations and discussion. See:

    […] Turquoise hydrogen. To produce hydrogen from fossil fuels requires much less energy than from water. After all, fossil fuels come from biomass produced by natural photosynthetic processes that use solar energy to transform carbon dioxide and water into hydrocarbons. That solar energy input is stored in the hydrocarbon molecules. Because nature already did half the work at no cost, decomposing methane into solid carbon and two hydrogen molecules requires less than approximately 6 kilowatt-hours per kilogram of hydrogen, or approximately one-seventh of the energy required to produce hydrogen from electrolysis of water.

    The decomposition process of methane in natural gas or other fossil resources to produce hydrogen and solid carbon is called pyrolysis; the hydrogen produced has been labeled “turquoise hydrogen.” The process occurs without any oxygen-containing molecules and thus no carbon dioxide is formed thus no greenhouse gas emissions. The solid carbon co-product resembles charcoal and can be safely and permanently stored in landfill (no pollution, does not melt or evaporate) or used in industrial processes.

    If large quantities of low-cost electricity or heat from carbon dioxide-free sources become widely available, it could be used for pyrolysis, making it also, in principle, an emissions-free source of hydrogen. While low-cost natural gas is available, turquoise hydrogen can be much less expensive than green hydrogen (i.e., hydrogen produced by splitting water via electrolysis). There are no dedicated turquoise hydrogen commercial facilities currently up and running, but many are under development. The projected price of turquoise hydrogen is estimated to be approximately $2/kilogram, depending on the price of natural gas. […]


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