Sven Jösting’s stock analysis
#Shares from the crypto universe and from many technology companies are currently reaching new highs. Armaments are also booming on the stock market in view of the many global, some war-like, political conflicts. Only the topic of hydrogen and fuel cells is still leading a shadowy existence, with prices at crash level, which however – still – fully obscures the prospects of sustainably produced energy, and above all of hydrogen.
The stock exchange also always works according to the principle of group rotation, according to which always exactly these topics slide back into the focus and center of investor interest that have been completely neglected up to now but have excellent prospects. Precisely why I expect that, after almost three years of falling share prices, the trend will now gradually reverse and a sustainable, long-term upward trend on the stock market is beginning that is based on very high company growth.
To many market participants, it is unclear at this time how hydrogen will be available in large quantities, although it is already clear today that production volumes will increase enormously and prices will fall. All this, however, doesn’t happen overnight: Gigantic capacities in electrolyzer technology – PEM, AFC, AEM, SOFC – must arise to be able to produce sufficient hydrogen.
Hydrogen economy is on its way and will come!
“The H2 economy is on its way and will come,” was the conclusion of the H2-Forum in Berlin (Feb. 19 and 20, 2024, see p. 20). One speaker explained that we’ve now come, after overinflated expectations, “out of the valley of the dead” and on solid ground. Now, it’s all about assessing risks and partaking in concrete projects, which would mean investments in the whole area of hydrogen. From talk to action.
If we take a visionary look into the years 2030, 2035 and 2040, it’s clear what technologically needs to be on course today. Green and, temporarily, blue hydrogen (produced by natural gas reforming – 70 percent less CO2) will dominate and replace gray hydrogen from natural gas, eventually CO2-freely. Regeneratively produced hydrogen will be a raw material that receives a market price as a commodity on the stock exchange. Those producers who have large quantities of low-cost renewable energy (solar, wind and hydropower) at their disposal and have the necessary access to water (above all seawater) will get a tradable commodity that they can sell on the world market, with high profit margins, or use themselves.
In the last case, it can be observed that countries with ideal framework conditions are increasingly thinking about using the hydrogen produced locally themselves, by setting up corresponding industries, instead of selling it to countries like Germany, as energy is a very important location factor.
Hydrogen and the stock market
In countries such as China and individual regions like the US state of California are developing hydrogen strategies that have model character and can serve as a blueprint for the world. In China, over 1,200 H2 refueling stations are to be in operation by 2025. Currently, it’s about 400. South Korea wants long-term to establish more than 1,600 H2 refueling stations in the country. Here in Germany are, as before, around 100 in operation.
Companies with capacities for fuel cell stacks and modules for commercial vehicles are in the starting blocks (Bosch, Cummins, Ballard, Hyzon, Toyota, Hyundai, etc.), because these markets will be huge. Several million trucks and buses can be assumed to be converted to battery or fuel cell (also in combination) in the next ten to twenty years. Hydrogen engines are also attracting a lot of attention, as various prototypes have already been developed (Bosch, Cummins, Toyota).
The question of the right H2 shares can be answered well with this context, as primarily companies will win that have a mature technology, operate with robust business models, are able to deliver and possibly profit from the consumable hydrogen itself, if they can produce it themselves at low cost or distribute and use it as a commodity.
Here beckons the prospect of a good profit margin with high growth potential. On the stock exchange, however, there is right now in the area of hydrogen a phase of disappointment, as firstly everything is not going so quickly and secondly setbacks must also be overcome. In addition to questions of implementation speed, there are often also regulatory issues on the timeline. That the stock market has not yet recognized the potential of the companies through their share prices and valuations is easy to see from the current prices. There is no question that there will be a complete reassessment, however, even if it will take longer. Be patient. We are only at the beginning of this new mega-trend – also on the stock exchange. Let’s wait for the group rotation; then, everything will happen very quickly.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
Author: Sven Jösting, written March 15th, 2024
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