Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Hydrogen + Fuel Cells Europe
The atmosphere was good. Not ecstatic, as was sometimes the case last year, but certainly lively. Especially in Hall 13, where the Hydrogen + Fuel Cells Europe event took place, where the aisles well filled and the babble of voices was much louder than in the other halls on the exhibition grounds. Nevertheless, the impression remains that also in the 30th year of this H2 fair, the market breakthrough is still a long time coming and will happen “in only five years,” as has been said for 20 years.
Hannover Messe still lays claim to being the world’s most important industrial trade fair – according to Dr. Jochen Köckler, the board chairman of Deutsche Messe AG, it is even the “mother of all trade fairs.” As in previous years, it also benefited from April 22 to 26, 2024 immensely from the current H2 boom. The great interest in hydrogen and fuel cell technology once again led to acceptable exhibitor and visitor numbers. New impetus as an indication of the direction in which the traditional trade fair business could develop there were however none.
It could be said that the H2 fair has once again rescued Deutsche Messe’s balance sheet.
Chancellor Scholz visits H2 businesses Not without reason did German chancellor Olaf Scholz give Hydrogen + Fuel Cells Europe a visit. The focus of his opening tour lay in the energy halls, where he stopped at Salzgitter (“We’re proceeding together on the trip” – see Fig. 2) as well as by GP Joule. Ove Petersen, cofounder and one of the managing directors of GP Joule, stressed how important the improvement of political framework conditions are to actually be able to establish electrolyzer capacities (see also p. 18).
Chancellor O. Scholz with the Norwegian Minister-President J. G. Støre, Salzgitter head G. Groebler, Minister-President of Niedersachsen S. Weil, Norwegian economy minister C. Myrseth,German family ministerL. Paus and German research minister B. Stark-Watzinger
Revealing word choice Interesting to observe was how the word choice of some areas changed. For example, in numerous lectures were again and again talk of “Low-Carbon-Wasserstoff” (low-carbon hydrogen). With this crafted word, the speakers smoothly circumvent the classification of hydrogen into the, by some, really unpopular color scale. “Low-Carbon” implies that during the H2 production, little carbon dioxide is emitted, but avoids a stigmatization by the attribute “gray,” “blue” or “turquoise,” since even the smallest blending with green hydrogen is enough to be able to designate it as low-carbon.
Green or blue For Olaf Lies, the state of Niedersachen’s economy minister, blue hydrogen is “a huge matter for achieving the climate targets.” In view of the tiresome discussion about color, he pointed out in Hannover that nobody asks about the color of electricity. “This must also be the case with hydrogen,” according to the minister.
Another innovation in the language style seems to concern the working principle in the hydrogen economy: Ever more frequently heard are sentences (in English), like “Partnership is the new leadership” or “Cooperation is key.” More and more players are realizing that the transformation process currently underway in the energy sector cannot be mastered alone, but only together.
What’s remained the same, in contrast, is the time horizon until the market ramp-up. Here we are still at five years. While in recent years it was still said that H2 trucks would be built in series starting 2025, representatives of the vehicle industry made it very clear that significant unit sales could not be expected in Germany until 2029 the earliest. Different is the situation in Asia: Refire advertised, for example, that it could already build 5,000 fuel cell systems per year.
After all, Dr. Matthias Jurytko, CEO of Cellcentric committed himself both to H2 technology and to Germany as a business location by saying: “Many talk about factories – We’re building one.” He also clarified: “Hydrogen will be the driver for long-haul transport.” At the same time, however, he conceded: “An increase in unit sales will not come until 2029/30.”
Dr. Jurytko: “There will be no long-haul transport without hydrogen.”
At around the same time, gray hydrogen could be just as expensive as green hydrogen due to rising CO2 prices, anticipates Gilles Le Van from Air Liquide.
Lively exchange in the forums In addition, in the Public Forum of Hydrogen + Fuel Cells Europe (see Fig. 3 and 4), exhibitors once again explained their new developments this year or discussed them with guests from industry and politics. For example, what framework conditions or incentives for sector coupling and flexibilization of energy consumption are still lacking, or where and how green hydrogen will be produced in sufficiently large quantities worldwide.
Also the question of how much hydrogen Germany will produce itself and how much will be imported from its European neighbors moderator Ulrich Walter discussed with various guests. Christian Maaß, head of the department for energy policy at the federal economy ministry (BMWK), cited estimates that Germany could produce just under half of its climate-neutral hydrogen requirements itself, with the remainder having to be imported.
When asked by the moderator why the electrolysis capacities would not be immediately increased to 20 GW by 2030, replied Maaß, “With higher targets I would be careful, as electrolyzers need a lot of electricity.” He therefore advocates aligning the production of green H2 with the expansion of renewable energy. Not least to avoid conflicting objectives, because the direct consumption of green electricity should have priority. In this respect, he assumes that large quantities of green hydrogen will probably be imported from overseas, in the form of ammonia, methane and SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). Overall, however, Germany will need around ten percent of the world’s H2 production, making it a global player.
A completely different view is held by Heinrich Gärtner, founder and CTO of the GP Joule Group. He was convinced “that we can produce much more green hydrogen domestically than we today think,” and explained: “We already have a large potential for renewable energies, and this is continuing to grow. This also increases the amount of surplus electricity that can be used to produce hydrogen using electrolysis.” This is not only sensible, but also necessary. This relieves the strain on the grids and enables local value creation. In his view, Germany only needs a tiny proportion of its land area to produce all the renewable energy it needs itself. “We have everything here: the technology and the infrastructure.”
Numerous political representatives were on hand to answer questions
Cooperation in the European Area Werner Diwald, chairman of the German hydrogen association (DWV), said, “The EU member states should be our main importing countries, not least to strengthen mutual relations and support stability within the European Union.” He also expressed optimism that the hydrogen economy could be ramped up quickly once a market and corresponding business models were in place. Something similar has already been seen with renewable energies. It should not be forgotten: The whole world needs green hydrogen. Germany therefore has a lot of competition, as other countries are also pursuing their own H2 strategies, according to Diwald.
The politicians present proved that the envisaged transformation process has long been underway with some impressive figures: For example, Olaf Lies spoke about 30 large gas-fired power plants in Niedersachsen that are to be made H2-ready. And his colleague Mona Neubaur, economy minister of Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW), announced 200 hydrogen refueling stations by 2030. “We’re placing the infrastructure in the region with precision.” She asserted that NRW is to become the first CO2-neutral industrial region.
Hermes Startup Award: And the winner is … As every year, the trade fair awards a prize to a particularly innovative company that is no more than five years old. For 2024, the Hermes Startup Award went to Archigas from Rüsselsheim, Germany. The company received the award for a moisture-resistant sensor for measuring hydrogen. The principle, which was developed together with the university Hochschule RheinMain, is based, according to the manufacturer, on an improved measurement of thermal conductivity on a microchip. The innovative technology is characterized by “miniaturization, robust design, short measuring times and a wide range of applications,” praised Prof. Holger Hanselka, president of the Fraunhofer research institutes and chair of the jury for the Hermes Startup Awards. Archigas is an “excellent example for innovation-driven businesses,” which have created the basis for the hydrogen economy to form.
Norway as a pioneer for green industrial transformation The partner country Norway was represented with its own pavilion on the topics of energy, process industry, battery and charging solutions, and digitalization in Hall 12 and also on the orange carpet of the H2 trade fair – with the (English) slogan “Pioneering the Green Industrial Transition.” As an energy producer and pioneer in e-mobility, the Scandinavian country sees itself as a kind of catalyst for accelerating the green transition to a low-carbon society. For example, in the development of renewable energies and the use of digital solutions to trim the industry to net zero, as the H2 expert and former LBST employee Ulrich Bünger explained, who in “retirement” advises Norwegian Energy Partners (Norwep). The aim is to produce around four percent of Europe’s estimated ten million tonnes of hydrogen imports by 2030.
“Norway and Germany are important trading partners, and we have entered into a strategic industrial partnership for renewable energy and green industry,” said the Norwegian trade and industry minister Jan Christian Vestre in the opening of the fair. “We hope that the Norwegian presence at Hannover Messe will further strengthen this close cooperation between our two countries,” he said.
Honda showed its new FC system
The EEA (European Economic Area) Agreement means that Norway is fully integrated into the European single market, so trade and investment should flow seamlessly between Norway, Germany and the other countries of the European Union. During the trade fair, Germany also concluded an agreement with its Scandinavian partner on the storage of carbon dioxide (carbon capture and storage, CCS).
A major order was able to be announced by Norwegian manufacturer of hydrogen storage systems Hexagon Purus. Starting the second quarter of 2024, it will supply H2 tanks to the Berlin-based company Home Power Solutions (HPS), which claims to have developed the world’s first year-round electricity storage system for buildings. The Picea system will be primarily used in single-family homes in combination with PV modules. Surplus solar power, which is mainly generated in summer, will be converted into green hydrogen using an electrolyzer, which will be stored in high-pressure tanks from Hexagon. In winter, this is then used for reconversion to electricity. According to information from HPS, this allows buildings to be supplied with solar energy all year round. “Our high-pressure hydrogen tanks are flexible and scalable, making them suitable for a wide range of applications,” such as with HPS, said Matthias Kötter, managing director of the location in Weeze.
Creativity and inventiveness in Hall 13 A product innovation was presented for example by SFC Energy with the EFOY H2PowerPack X50, a pilot series for the most powerful fuel cell system to date with up to 200 kW in cluster operation. According to the FC specialist from Bavaria, this latest development offers the user a continuous electrical output power of 50 kW. However, up to four of these H2PowerPacks can be connected together to reach an output of 200 kW. The environmentally and climate-friendly alternative to diesel generators is equipped with standard 400 V AC connections, an integrated lithium battery and a 300‑bar hydrogen interface.
The operation is, according to information from the manufacturer, emissions-free; no CO2, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides or fine particles are emitted. Likely applications include the emergency power supply of hospitals or communication and IT systems, mobile power supply for construction sites and events or a continuous power supply for self-sufficient companies. “With the push into higher performance classes, SFC Energy is responding to correspondingly high market demand,” announced the company founded in 2000 and headquartered in Brunnthal near Munich. The series production and market introduction are planned for the beginning of 2025.
This year’s H2 Eco Award went to the energy park Bad Lauchstädt
Lhyfe expands What the hydrogen ramp-up looks like from the perspective of the Lhyfe Group, which now operates in eleven European countries, was reported by Luc Graré, who heads the Central and Eastern Europe division: “We are right now scaling up our production.” He describes the philosophy of the hydrogen pioneer, which was founded in 2017, as follows: “We start small, learn, grow, learn again, grow further and then scale up.” After the company started with an electrolysis capacity of one megawatt in France, it is now 10 MW.
Currently, six production plants for green hydrogen are planned or in the construction phase: Three in France, three in Germany. “And it will be increasingly more,” he said. A 10‑MW plant is currently under construction in the Niedersachen port town of Brake (on the Unterweser). Up to 1,150 tonnes of green H2 are to be produced there annually, which will go to regional customers from the industrial and transport sectors. The company has secured the purchase of green electricity through long-term electricity contracts (PPAs) with operators of wind farms and photovoltaic systems.
Another 10‑MW plant has been under construction in Schwäbisch Gmünd in Baden-Württemberg since autumn 2023, and is scheduled to go into operation in the second half of this year – with a production of up to four tonnes of green hydrogen per day. Still under development is the plan to commission an 800‑MW plant in Lubmin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by 2029, which is to be built on the site of the decommissioned nuclear power plant. According to information from Lhyfe, the hydrogen produced there in the future could be fed into the emerging hydrogen network.
Formic acid as H2 storage Even outside Hall 13 was a lot about hydrogen. At some stands it looked like a chemistry lab, with bubbling water in glass vessels or a cloudy nutrient liquid in transparent bioreactors. With one, Festo, in Hall 7 showed its latest achievement in H2 storage: the so-called BionicHydrogenBattery (see Fig. 7). It contains bacteria from Lake Kivu in Central Africa that convert hydrogen into formic acid in a natural process. In this chemically bound form, hydrogen is comparatively easy to store and transport. It is also more climate-friendly, as there is no need for energy-intensive compression or cooling to ‑253 °C to liquefy hydrogen. The conditions under which the microorganisms do their work are moderate: They need a temperature of 65 °C and a pressure of 1.5 bar.
The cultivation reactor of the BionicHydrogenBattery from Festo
Normally, the bacteria called Thermoanaerobacter kivui live in sludge in the absence of oxygen (anaerobe). They have an enzyme with which they can convert hydrogen and carbon dioxide into formic acid (CH2O2). They can also reverse the process. The basic research in this area was carried out by the team around Volker Müller, Professor at the Goethe-Universität Frankfurt and head of the department of molecular microbiology and bioenergetics, with which the bionic project team of Festo, according to its information, is working closely.
From an economic point of view, the exciting thing about this biological process is not only the speed of the reaction, but also the fact that the bacteria act as catalysts: “They are not used up,” stated the globally active company specialized in automation technology and founded in Esslingen 1925. “The process can be repeated at will with sufficient regeneration phases – just like a cycle,” they stated. As the reaction can take place in both directions, bacteria of this type are able to break down formic acid back into hydrogen and carbon dioxide at the target site. The CO2 can then be used in the beverage industry, for example.
Positive conclusion At the closing press conference, Jochen Köckler came to, as expected, a positive tally: More than 130,000 visitors from over 150 countries met 4,000 exhibitors from 60 countries. Of these, 40 percent of the visitors came from abroad: most of them from China and the neighboring Netherlands, followed by the USA, Korea and Japan. Gunnhild Brumm from the Norwegian business development organization Innovation Norway was pleased about the good business and contract conclusions: “In short: It was really worth it! It was a real boost for us. We would love to come back.” Not as a partner country again, of course, because next year that will be Canada.
“We are laying the foundations for the H2 economy of the future…. The speed of artificial intelligence (AI) is too high in some places, but we absolutely need more speed for hydrogen.”
In the past, hydrogen was usually isolated from fossil fuels such as natural gas using steam reforming and stored. Ecologically more sensible is hydrogen generation through the electrolysis of water using green electricity, for example for later electricity generation in fuel cells – but this reduces the efficiency compared to other storage media and the economic efficiency suffers. Hydrogen – itself not a primary energy source – serves primarily as a secondary energy source, so as a storage medium, and can be an ideal buffer to absorb excess capacity in electricity generation (e.g. from wind and solar) and then provide it when needed.
Although most listed companies involved in hydrogen research, production or infrastructure have only been making losses for years, the demand from investors, not least from many sustainably oriented investment funds, has driven share prices to sky high levels. Now, the highs of the hyped stocks are over. Investors who bought three years ago at the highest prices at the time are sobered to discover that the prices are now not seldom 90 percent or even lower. Because sales developments have fallen far short of expectations. Nevertheless, these stocks can still fall further: the market capitalizations are, even at the current price level, usually at a multiple of the last annual turnover – and most of these companies continue to report heavy losses.
Exceptions are large companies like Linde plc (the former DAX Group, founded in 1879, is based in Ireland after merging with Praxair), who with currently 66,000 employees and at nearly 33 billion USD turnover made a profit of 6.2 billion USD – but only a fraction of sales coming from hydrogen. Also here the market value, with around 207 billion USD, lies far over the annual turnover.
Similar is the situation with the second major industrial gas producer Air Liquide SA from France, who in 2023 with nearly 68,000 employees and around 27.6 billion EUR turnover made a profit of 3.1 billion EUR. At a share price of around 180 EUR, the market value with around 94 billion EUR is far higher than the turnover.
The Canadian company active in the field of fuel cells for over three decades, Ballard Power Systems, even today still makes losses and has only survived because it has repeatedly been able to finance these through capital increases worth billions. Year 2023 saw, at a turnover of 138 million CAD, a loss of 240 million CAD. The FC pioneer with almost 1,200 employees is still valued at around nine times the annual turnover – and the price development of the last five years (including the over 90 percent loss since the high at the beginning of 2021) is typical of many smaller H2 stocks.
Some of the companies that focused on hydrogen early on no longer exist, for example the Canadian pressure vessel manufacturer Dynetek Industries, the Berlin-based Heliocentris Fuel Cells AG or Syngas International. Even the unlisted Hydrogen eMobility AG (based in Schloss Schönbrunn, Vienna) was liquidated in mid-2023. As chairman of the supervisory board acted here the financial economist Wolfgang Meilinger, the short-term husband (2018 to 2020) of the former Austrian foreign minister Dr. Karin Kneissl, who danced with Vladimir Putin at her wedding and now – as a highly paid supervisory board member of the Moscow oil company Rosneft – has found her new home in Russia.
Energy experts like Dr. Fritz Binder-Krieglstein (www.renewable.at) from Austria are not only skeptical about the economic viability and cited studies years ago according to which the “price of green hydrogen is incalculable” because, for example, “production and transport costs do not yield a market price.” In addition, hydrogen is “currently being promoted intensively in the media and politically primarily by large fossil-nuclear corporations. And they have always cared nothing about end consumer prices, see nuclear power and fossil climate destruction.”
PowerTap Hydrogen Capital Corp.
There are relatively few “pure player” stocks in the area of greenhouse gas-neutral hydrogen producers. It is therefore not surprising that due to the high demand for “hydrogen stocks” – years ago it was one of the most discussed topics among stock market traders, but also in science, politics and many media outlets – many securities have risen by more than 1,000 percent in a short period of time, such as the share of PowerTap Hydrogen Capital Corp.
The Canadian company (www.powertapcapital.com) was still called until November 2020 Organice Flower and presented itself as a cannabis startup at the time. After that, it became Clean Power Capital and after the majority takeover of the PowerTap Hydrogen Fueling Corp. was renamed PowerTap Hydrogen Capital Corp. Since then, their aim is to build an H2 refueling station network in the USA and Canada within a few years. But the last two years (2022/23) did not bring any turnover, but probably losses of over 240 million CAD and negative equity. The price fell from over 50 USD (2021) to only 0.15 USD, with the market value correspondingly below 4 million USD.
Similar renamings (HyperSolar is now called SunHydrogen) and quick IPOs of companies that still had no sales revenue occurred frequently in 2020. And there were also some warnings at this time, such as at the Vienna-based stock exchange letter Öko-Invest or at the Dortmund-based Ecoreporter magazine in the article „Deutsches Wasserstoff-Start-up: Enapter und die 100.000 Elektrolyseure“ (German hydrogen startup: Enapter and the 100,000 electrolyzers): Here you should “exercise caution,” because “many hydrogen stocks are still more a bet than an investment.”
Enapter AG
Enapter AG, with headquarters in Germany and a research and production site in Italy, has developed electrolyzers in single-core and multi-core systems and now sold to over 340 customers in over 50 countries, from energy and transport to heating and telecommunications companies. In 2023, with around 200 employees, they were able to raise turnover by 115 percent to over 31.6 million EUR, but still had to report a loss of 7.2 million EUR (previous year: 13.0 million EUR), so that the equity ratio fell from over 80 percent to under 57 percent. The price fell from just under 50 EUR (end of 2020) by over 90 percent to under 4.50 EUR (May 2024), which corresponds to a market value of around 121 million EUR.
Also expected for 2024 are – with a turnover of 34 million EUR – further losses of at least 8 million EUR. In March 2024, Enapter received its largest order to date in Europe: The shipping company CFFT SpA has ordered three electrolyzers with 1 MW output each, which are to be used for H2 refueling systems in a port near Rome.
Via the Enapter subsidiary Clean H2 Inc. (www.cleanh2.energy) in the USA, which provides electrolyzers, and the exclusive sales partner Solar Invest International SE, orders with a volume of 5.4 million USD were received by the end of May 2024, especially from the truck and air transport sectors. Enapter promises advantages on the US market, among other things due to the Inflation Reduction Act, which also includes the subsidization of hydrogen applications, and due to the anion exchange membrane (AEM) technology, which does not require the rare element iridium.
Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co. KGaA
The electrolysis division spun off from the Group was able to increase turnover by 70 percent to 653 million EUR in 2022/23 and in terms of earnings after taxes of 22.5 million euros – after only 6.0 million EUR in 2022 – they are back in line with the years before (21.3 million and 21.7 million EUR in 2020 and 2021). The equity ratio rose from 33.2 to 64.5 percent in 2023 through the IPO.
In the first quarter of 2024 (corresponds to Q2 in the current financial year), order influx fell by 42 percent to 75.3 million EUR, which division leader Dr. Christoph Noeres attributed to project delays by customers, slow funding commitments and other “investment obstacles” in the hydrogen business. At a quarterly turnover of 168 million euros (+11 percent), the result fell from +3.6 million euros (in Q1/2023) to ‑7.2 million euros.
Since March 2024, Fraunhofer IKTS has been a strategic partner in “highly innovative high-temperature electrolysis technology” (SOEC) – and the US Department of Energy has “selected [Thyssenkrupp Nucera] to advance the mass production of water electrolysis cells and the establishment of an automated assembly line of these cells”.
Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co. KGaA (with now over 850 employees) expects sales of between 820 and 900 million EUR (status September 30, 2024) in the 2023/24 financial year (of which 500 to 550 million EUR are in the area of alkaline water electrolysis), but due, among other things, to “start-up costs for the implementation of the growth strategy” a loss in the two-digit million range. Not until 2024/25 do they want to “approach” the profit threshold.
At a price of around 11.50 EUR (end of May 2024), the market value of 1.45 billion EUR corresponds to approximately twice the sales of the last four quarters.
Plug Power
The US company (www.plugpower.com) is one of the world’s largest buyers of liquid hydrogen, even though since the takeover (2021) of United Hydrogen they can also produce it themselves. In mid-May 2024, the US Department of Energy (DOE) via the Loan Programs Office (LPO) gave – according to CEO Andy Marsh after an intensive due diligence process – a “conditional commitment to a loan guarantee of up to 1.66 billion USD to finance the development, construction and ownership of up to six green hydrogen production facilities,” which is in line with the Biden administration’s “Justice 40” initiative.
Plug Power put into operation at the start of 2024 in Woodbine, Georgia the first commercial system of this type, thereby increasing the daily production capacity for liquid hydrogen to around 25 tonnes. In 2023, with over 3,800 employees, turnover was able to be increased by 27 percent to over 891 billion USD, but the loss also increased by 89 percent to over 1,368 million USD, or 2.30 USD per share. The equity ratio fell slightly from 70.4 to 59.1 percent. At a price of around 3.20 USD (end of May 2024), the market value of around 2.4 billion USD corresponds to approximately three times the sales of the last four quarters.
Nel ASA
The Norwegian company that was founded in 1927 and now has almost 700 employees is one of the pioneers in the field of electrolysis to generate hydrogen (nelhydrogen.com). The second area (“Hydrogen Fueling”) deals with infrastructure (construction of hydrogen refueling stations and refueling pumps, mainly for the transport sector). Already in 2017, Nel founded with Hexagon Composite and PowerCell Sweden the joint venture Hyon for the area of watercraft with fuel cell drives. Nel Hydrogen is also part of the PosHYdon consortium (and is to supply the electrolyzer), which plans to install an offshore hydrogen production facility on Neptune Energy’s Q13a-A oil and gas platform yet in 2024.
In 2023, Nel’s turnover rose by 84 percent to over 1.68 billion NOK. The loss was able to be reduced from 1.17 billion NOK to under 0.86 billion NOK. The equity ratio fell from over 78 percent (2022) to 72 percent. At a price of around 0.62 EUR (end of May 2024), this results in a market value of around 1.0 billion EUR, which still represents a multiple of the annual turnover.
Nel CEO Håkon Volldal noted in early 2024 that there were only “limited synergies between the fueling and electrolyzer businesses” and believes that “both divisions are better positioned to become market leaders in their respective areas by operating independently of each other.” The refueling division is therefore to be spun off under the name Cavendish Hydrogen – named after the British scientist Henry Cavendish (1731 – 1810), who discovered the element hydrogen as “combustible air” in 1766. NEL shareholders will then receive Cavendish Hydrogen shares in the IPO planned in Oslo.
Everfuel A/S
The Danish Nel spin-off (www.everfuel.com) has been listed on the stock exchange since October 2020 and, for example, has signed a contract with the offshore wind farm operator Orsted. Its planned 2 MW plant is expected to deliver up to 1,000 kg of hydrogen per day, where Everfuel is also to be responsible for the operation of the compression and filling system. In May 2024, CEO Jacob Krogsgaard announced a declaration of intent from a German industrial company, which, if a hydrogen pipeline is realized between Denmark and Germany, starting 2028 wants to annually purchase around 10,000 tonnes of “green hydrogen” (RFNBO, renewable fuels of non-biological origin) from Everfuel (which would require an electrolyzer capacity of at least 100 MW).
In 2023, Everfuel, with around 75 employees, was able to increase sales by 128 percent to around 5.7 million EUR; however, the loss also increased from almost 16 million EUR to around 28 million EUR, so the equity ratio fell from 57.7 to below 51.5 percent. The price on the home exchange in Oslo fell by 94 percent from over 183 NOK (beginning of 2021) to below 11 NOK (May 2024), which still corresponds to a market value of almost 80 million EUR – so around 14 times annual turnover.
McPhy Energy SA
The company (www.mcphy.com) with headquarters in Grenoble and several subsidiaries, like McPhy Energy Deutschland GmbH, sees itself as a “developer and manufacturer of systems for the production and distribution of carbon-free hydrogen.” The five competence centers in France, Germany and Italy, in addition to electrolyzers, offer storage tanks and systems for the energy and transport sectors, among others. Under the (English) motto “Driving clean energy forward,” CEO Jean-Baptiste Lucas wants to with McPhy Energy “develop carbon-free hydrogen applications and contribute to the fight against climate change.”
In 2023, with over 260 employees, sales were able to be increased by 17 percent to around 18.8 million EUR; however, the loss grew by 24 percent to 47.4 million EUR, or 1.70 EUR per share. The equity ratio fell from 64.6 to 53.7 percent. At a price of around 3.10 EUR (end of May 2024), the market value of around 92 million EUR corresponds to almost five times the annual turnover.
PowerCell Sweden AB
The company founded in 2008 (www.powercellgroup.com) produces fuel cell systems that can convert fossil as well as renewable energy sources into hydrogen. It has consistently produced losses so far, with one exception in 2019, when for the sale of an exclusive production and distribution license for the “PowerCell S3 fuel cell stack” to Robert Bosch GmbH a revenue of around 50 million EUR was recorded.
In 2023, with around 150 employees, sales were able to be increased by 27 percent to over 310 million SEK; however, the loss also increased by eight percent to around 63 million SEK, so the equity ratio fell from over 70 to under 65 percent. The price fell by over 90 percent from over 400 SEK (beginning of 2021) to around 36 SEK (May 2024), which still corresponds to a market value of around 1.9 billion SEK – around six times the annual turnover.
ITM Power plc
The British company (www.itm-power.com) founded in 2001 and led by CEO Dennis Schulz is one of the most established companies in the electrolysis industry in Europe, even though the turnover here is still very low compared to the market value. ITM Power, whose three major shareholders include Linde, has among other things founded a joint venture (50/50) with Linde: ITM Linde Electrolysis GmbH (ILE GmbH) wants to realize the world’s largest electrolyzer plant in Leuna, Germany – with the support of the German government, which aims to help build up a production capacity of 5,000 MW by 2030 as part of its hydrogen strategy and has planned several billion euros in funding for this. ITM Power offers several electrolyzer models, from Trident (2 MW) and Neptune to Poseidon (20 MW) for large projects.
In fiscal year 2022/23 (status April 30, 2023), turnover fell by seven percent to 5.2 million GBP; the loss more than doubled to over 101 million GBP. The equity ratio fell from over 86 percent to under 74 percent. The price fell by 92 percent from 7.17 GBP (beginning of 2021) to below 0.58 (May 2024), which corresponds to a market value of over 350 million GBP– so around 30 times the sales of the last four quarters.
Weichai Power
This automotive technology group founded in 1953 (www.weichaipower.com) built one of the first diesel engine factories in China and was still called Weichai Diesel Engine Factory until 1992. The company is anything but a “pure player;” however, with some business units and shareholdings such as Ballard Power and Ceres Power, the company is also involved in the manufacture of fuel cell products and hydrogen applications. Minority interests were also acquired in Linde Hydraulics and the German forklift Group Kion. In 2020, Weichai Power moved up into the global top 10 list of automotive suppliers; when it comes to truck diesel engines, they hold the top spot in terms of efficiency.
In 2023, with over 47,600 employees, sales were able to be increased by 16 percent to over 214 billion CNY (about 27 billion EUR) – and profits, which fell 49 percent in 2022, rose by almost 75 percent to over 9.0 billion CNY. The equity ratio fell slightly from 24.9 percent to 23.7 percent.
The prices of Weichai-Power-H-Aktien, which is also listed on the German stock exchange, have fluctuated between 0.93 and 2.78 EUR in the last years. At a price of around 1.70 euros (end of May 2024), the market value corresponds to around 0.6 times the annual turnover of Weichai Power. The dividend yield was recently just under 4.4 percent.
Proton Motor Power Systems plc
The British FC company (www.proton-motor.com) with the German subsidiary Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH, which also develops products in the area of hydrogen, rarely saw in the last seven years annual turnovers over 2 million GBP; in 2018 and 2019, it was only around 0.8 million GBP each – with usually much higher losses, often in the two-digit millions. The equity ratio has been negative for many years.
The price fell by over 95 percent from over 50 pence (beginning of 2021) to around 2 pence (end of May 2024), so that the market value of around 33 million pounds corresponds to approximately 17 times last year’s turnover.
Verbund AG
Since the partial privatization in 1989, the hydropower company’s shares – the issue price, adjusted for splits, was around 2.65 EUR – have been listed on the stock exchange (the Republic of Austria still holds 51 percent). Around 98 percent of its own electricity generation comes from renewable energies, besides hydroelectric power plants increasingly from wind and solar parks, including abroad. The wholly owned subsidiary founded in 2001 Austrian Power Grid AG holds interests in, among others, OeMAG Abwicklungsstelle für Ökostrom.
With Verbund Green Hydrogen GmbH they’re also active in hydrogen production, among other things in industrial projects together with Austrian corporations – or as a supplier to the fuel retailer Westfalen AG from Münster, who starting 2026 wants to purchase green hydrogen from this Verbund company. At the end of May 2024, Tunisia and TE H2 – an 80/20 joint venture between TotalEnergies and the EREN Groupe, along with Verbund AG signed a letter of intent “to examine the implementation of a major green hydrogen project called H2 Notos for export via pipelines to Central Europe.” Electrolyzers are to initially produce around 200,000, and later up to 1 million tonnes of green hydrogen per year using electricity from Tunisian wind and solar parks as well as desalinated water.
Via the hydrogen pipeline “SoutH2 Corridor” planned for by 2030, North Africa will then be connected to Italy, Austria and Germany, and Verbund AG is to coordinate H2 transport to Central Europe. According to TE H2 CEO David Corchia, H2 Notos has “the potential to become a significant supplier of green hydrogen to Europe while supporting large-scale job creation in Tunisia.” And Verbund CEO Michael Strugl is “delighted to work with a strong consortium capable of implementing projects in the GW range.”
In 2022, the electricity supplier’s sales (with around 3,800 employees) rose by almost 117 percent to 10.35 billion EUR; 2023 further to 10.45 billion EUR. Profit rose by 32 percent in 2023 to 2,266 million EUR or 6.52 EUR per share. The equity ratio rose from 37 percent (2022) to over 50 percent (2023).
At around 347 million shares and a price of around 75 EUR, Verbund AG has a market value of over 25 billion EUR, which corresponds to 2.5 times annual turnover and a dividend yield of around 5.6 percent. The share is one of the 25 in the the sustainable stock index Natur-Aktien-Index NX-25 (this index has increased by around 2,273 percent in the first 27 years since it was launched in 1997, far more than the MSCI World benchmark index with +322 percent) and has also been included (at a price of 10 EUR) in the model portfolio of the stock exchange letter Öko-Invest.
Disclaimer
When investing in stocks, every investor should always be aware of their own risk assessment and also think about sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and stocks mentioned here are small and mid-cap, which means they are not standard stocks and the volatility is also significantly higher. This analysis does not constitute a purchase recommendation. All information is based on publicly available sources and represents solely the author’s personal opinion regarding the evaluation, with the focus being on medium to long-term valuation rather than short-term profits. The shares presented here may be owned by the author. This is not an investment or purchase recommendation, but simply a non-binding personal assessment – no guarantees.
The author, Max Deml (born 1957), has been editor-in-chief of the stock exchange letter Öko-Invest (www.oeko-invest.net) since 1991 and author of the handbook Grünes Geld (“green money,” 8th edition since 1990). In 1997, he developed the international stock index Natur-Aktienindex NX-25 (with 25 members) and in 2001 the solar stock index PPVX, which contains the world’s 30 largest listed PV production companies, suppliers and operators.
Siemens Energy is on the right track, as the latest figures show. Although the wind subsidiary Gamesa, like before, is registering losses, all other divisions are doing well and are profitable – trend rising. That the stock market also sees it that way is shown by the share price being at times over 14 EUR. You must simply give the integration of Siemens Gamesa time. That won’t happen in weeks, but rather in one to two years. Starting 2026, this unit should be profitable again and by then enable a cost reduction potential of 400 million EUR.
At the same time, the market for offshore wind is growing enormously, and there will be more and more synergies, such as with electrolyzers for offshore hydrogen production, visible. Here, things will grow together that belong together, because renewable wind power should be converted into molecules on site, which are then transported by ship and pipeline to consumers. Whether the onshore wind division – and this is where the problems lie at Gamesa – can and should be maintained as an activity is questionable, if the technical problems cannot be solved sustainably.
Siemens is divided into many divisions, all of which are growing at different rates and contribute to the success of the conglomerate. The division Gas Services reported a turnover of 10.9 billion EUR at an operating profit of 1.033 billion EUR. The division Grid Technologies has made 7.2 billion EUR turnover at 0.54 billion EUR profit, and Transformation of Industry had 4.4 billion EUR turnover at 0.228 billion EUR profit. Let me make a simple thought experiment here:
What would happen if Siemens Energy would take one of these divisions public as a spin-off (as a company share), like what parent company Siemens did with Siemens Energy? Could perhaps 30 to 40 percent of Gas Services proportionately be worth 2, 3 or 4 billion EUR on the stock market and Siemens Energy allow this equivalent value via an initial public offering (IPO) as an inflow of capital? With this capital, Siemens Energy could then finance strategic acquisitions from its own resources. New business models could be developed in order to bring together the offshore wind division of Siemens Gamesa with the electrolyzer division, with the aim of producing offshore hydrogen. Wouldn’t it even be interesting, to enter into hydrogen production itself with partners and customers and to bring in hardware from Siemens Energy to projects as assets or contributions in kind? All this would open up new and sustainable sales areas for Siemens Energy, is my purely theoretical consideration.
New on the supervisory board: Prof. Veronika Grimm
The appointment of Prof. Veronika Grimm to the supervisory board of Siemens Energy – criticism came from the ranks of the economic experts due to possible conflicts of interest – I think it is expedient, because this is where expertise from the theoretical field flows into the practical work of a company. Grimm with her expertise in the energy sector has a special position in the council of wise men, because she thinks pragmatically and is open to technology, and also esteems hydrogen with the importance that the supermolecule has. From this Siemens Energy can profit. On topics that directly affect Siemens Energy she will not issue an opinion. In advisory bodies like the economic council sit theorists.
Record order intake
The power plant strategy finally adopted by the German government (see p. 26) leaves rooms for a lot of imagination for Siemens Energy, because many a major order for gas turbines could and should land here, as there are only few capable providers like Siemens Energy anyway. It is a good sign that the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 was able to be concluded with a profit before special effects of 208 million EUR. The impressive 24 percent increase in order intake to 15.4 billion EUR in the quarter catapulted this to a record level of over 118 billion EUR and, if it continues like this, is also expected to reach 140 to 150 billion EUR on an annualized basis (estimate).
Summary: Buy and leave alone. As a full-service provider, the conglomerate is in the right and, above all, high-growth markets of energy production, especially in the area of hydrogen, perfectly positioned.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The press conference in February 2024 on the fourth quarter results and the entire year 2023 and, above all, the outlook for the current fiscal year support my very optimistic assessment of this start-up. Of the 42 built Tre FCEVs, 35 were delivered in the fourth quarter. Seven are currently being tested by fleet operators. The battery-electric trucks, Tre EVs, after the problems with the batteries and their replacement in the course of the year, will return to their buyers by the end of the second quarter.
Nikola can immediately sell every built Tre FCEV, because the demand is there, but there are now not yet enough parts from suppliers. In 2024, 300 to 350 are to be sold. Strong is the position with the coupons called (California) HVIP vouchers, from which Nikola can sell almost all (99 percent, 355 out of 360) for hydrogen-powered vehicles. We’re talking about up to 408,000 USD subsidization per FC truck. With the BEVs, there were 95 vouchers by the end of January 2024.
Focusing on California and Canada in the initial phase is smart in view of the support programs there. In parallel, Nikola is working via its subsidiary HYLA on important locations (including port facilities in California such as LA or in Orlando, Florida) to initially supply the necessary hydrogen with the help of mobile H2 refueling stations (significantly less regulatory work than with fixed locations), to then set up fixed H2 refueling stations depending on experience and demand.
On top of that is the partnership with FirstElement Fuel, a company that already operates locations at important hubs (ports such as Orlando) and supplies 100 to 200 trucks per day with the necessary hydrogen there. Sufficient hydrogen is available in any case, according to a take from the press conference. That already includes the Tre FCEVs to be delivered and their H2 requirements. Currently in development are nine locations of their own HYLA program in addition to those of FirstElement Fuel. Altogether, over 60 H2 refueling stations will emerge there in the future.
All important positions filled – with top talent
The CFO position has now also been filled: Thomas B. Okray is the new chief financial officer. He can boast an impressive CV: Okray was CFO at companies like Eaton, but also in a leading position in the logistics division (fulfillment) at Amazon and 14 years in top positions at GM – also as CFO.
With Jonathan Pertchik, Nikola is bringing in a managing director that already been successful as CEO at TravelCenters of America. The company was acquired by BP and is one of the largest truck stop operators in the USA. Here someday, hydrogen refueling stations from Nikola could be positioned – comparable to Pilot Flying J – if it came to a cooperation (an idea).
Ole Höfelmann will be, via the subsidiary HYLA, president of Nikola Energy. Before, he was responsible for the company’s global infrastructure activities. In his career, he has held numerous management positions for 30 years at Air Liquide, among other things as CEO of Air Liquide Spain with 3,000 employees. In addition, he worked at Plug Power as head of the electrolysis division. Furthermore, he is a board member of various associations such as the California Fuel Cell Partnership.
Carla Tully completes the executive board. She has held leadership positions in Fortune 150 companies, among other things as co-founder of Earthrise Energy (over 1.5 GW of renewable energy), was on the board of the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Forum and in management positions at MAP Energy (2.4 billion USD market cap) and AES Corp. Nikola can thus draw on extensive expertise in the areas of M&A, private equity and CSR. Therefore, Nikola is optimally equipped for the future in all leadership positions.
Truck in use – Customers very satisfied
Several customer reports on long-distance journeys with hydrogen-powered trucks are very positive: Coyote Container drove from the Port of Oakland to Long Beach, then to Iowa and Ontario and back to the Port of Portland – 866 miles (1,393 km) on just one tank of H2. MTA Trucks drove 519 km (322 mi) from Edmonton to Calgary and back. The tank was still 40 percent full at the end of the route – at minus ten degrees Celsius. Other examples refer to trips of over 1,000 miles in one day with a full load.
Special potential with the Badger?
Yes, you read correctly: In 2023, Ember acquired the market rights (IP, design) and prototype for this strong-looking SUV named Badger from Nikola. Nikola sold these items as part of an equity swap (exchange via contribution in kind) to Ember and received 30 percent of the company in return. No capital will flow from Nikola, as it is concentrating on the e-truck. Certain is that the Badger, as an FC/battery SUV, could give serious competition to the Cybertruck of Tesla, should it come onto the market in time. Whether Ember and other OEMs and partners will actually implement this project is, however, still unclear.
Psychologically, however, it is a strong sign that Nikola is indirectly in the boat here. It will be interesting to see. Because the Badger once served as the basis for a cooperation with GM and resulted in a two-digit billion valuation of Nikola Motors at the stock exchange. There were 6,000 pre-orders at the time. Just think of it as a nice side topic, but it could be very exciting when things get concrete here and well-known names such as Magna, Dana, GM and many others pick up the ball. Consider this: The design of such a car too, which you already have, also costs a lot of capital – not to mention that the start of production requires a lot of capital, even if there are companies (OEMs) that could ramp up existing production capacities very quickly. Then, the Badger would be on the market in just a few years. Anything is conceivable.
Summary
With over 460 million USD in free capital (unrestricted cash), the company is initially well positioned. Cost-cutting measures, optimization and normal scaling effects in production (the more trucks are built and sold, the lower the unit price and the closer the break-even point becomes) will characterize the year as a whole, where the capital use on a quarterly basis is to noticeably sink. And 400 to 450 trucks of both types are the initial sales target for 2024, with expected turnover at 150 to 170 million USD. It should be noted, however, that order intake could end up significantly higher, even if it doesn’t affect turnover until 2025.
Nikola is still in the start-up phase. Theoretically, 2,400 trucks per year could already be produced if all supplier parts were available. As far as the share price is concerned, CEO Stephen Girsky repeated himself, Solomon-like, when he said – to the effect – that the stock market itself will be the best judge if the forecasts made come true. Bound to that is my expectation that we will soon see prices of over 1 USD (or significantly more) again when what is forecasted happens. A reverse split (share consolidation) as a measure to raise the share price over 1 USD is then naturally superfluous. (With a price of under 1 USD, it can theoretically come to a delisting of the NASDAQ on July 7 after a 180-day period that however can be extended.)
The price behavior of the share at this time will still be dominated by short sellers and naked short sellers that massively bet against the company and the share price. Mid-February, 217.6 million shares were sold short. This short interest could with good news lead to short covering (in the extreme case to a squeeze) – is my personal view, and only that.
On the other side, institutional investors like Norges Bank (who holds 10.25 percent in Nikola), Blackrock, Vanguard and others are buying, which can be seen as a good sign and should. Against the company founder Trevor Milton Nikola has already won in court, and it is now working on an enforcement title. After all, it entails 165 million USD. Milton still holds over 51 million shares, which could possibly be collected as a partial payment – no guarantees.
The share price is now being driven primarily by incoming orders for e-trucks. Out of the current test series with fleet operators could result – is my expectation – also many a large order.
Nikola is to be seen as a start-up. This is a new, disruptive market at the beginning of a long-term trend. Until the transition to the profit zone (2025/26), a lot of capital still needs to be invested (logical losses), but the stock exchange will gladly make it available if the forecasts come true and anticipate it in the share price development. The investment bank Baird recently announced a target price of 2 USD. Other investment banks may follow. The volatility of the share will remain very high. Daily fluctuations of five or even more than ten percent are normal. Not for investors with weak nerves.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
Hyzon Motors will start production of 200‑kW modules for commercial vehicles in the USA in the second half of 2024. This should then lead to a recovery of the strongly depressed share price via incoming orders. Parallel to this are running product presentations such as the recent one in Melbourne (Australia) with the 200‑kW Hyzon Prime Mover at the Kangan Institute Automotive Centre of Excellence. Deliveries in New Zealand, Australia, Europe and the USA are planned for later in the year. This fuel cell system can be used in many other applications and markets at the same time: rail vehicles, maritime transport, stationary energy, mining vehicles, etc. It will be interesting to see which customers this 200‑kW single stack will find and the order potential that will result, especially as it offers a cost reduction potential of over 25 percent and conserves 30 percent of the space and weight – compared with a 110‑kW system. A first major market for Hyzon will be the employment in commercial vehicles in Australia, where the company has an important location with around 50 employees.
Patent registrations – Competition with Toyota and Bosch
Hyzon Motors has applied for a number of patents in the USA, Europe and Asia and many have already been granted. The main focus here is on reducing emissions when using fuel cells, but also on battery systems. What this means in detail is not clear to me, but shows that Hyzon is very active in securing patents and sees in it an important basis for its FC products and utilizations as well as markets. This would put them in direct competition with companies such as Toyota and Bosch. This could – purely theoretically – eventually lead to license revenue.
Hyzon still has with over 100 million USD sufficient capital, but will not be able to avoid taking measures (issue of new shares or participation of a strategic investor) to finance the company’s growth and expansion. The production facility in Illinois is self-financed. Production ramp-up is beginning in the second half of the year. Incoming orders for the FC modules as well as speculation by a strategic partner or investor make the share of Hyzon Motors a very interesting speculation, although the investment is to be classified as highly speculative as you’re dealing with a start-up.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The share of Cummins Engine brings joy: The share price rose to a new high for the year, after the company was able to settle a long-standing legal dispute – it was about non-compliance with emission standards for engines – with a penalty payment of 1.6 billion USD, and with that this chapter is closed. The total cost of this settlement was 2.04 billion USD. Regarding the value per share, Cummins earned a good 19 USD in year 2023, if including the abovementioned costs. So it was about 6 USD per share.
The dividend remains at a high level – recently 1.68 USD per share in the quarter. Turnover increased by ten percent to 34.1 billion USD in year 2023 and should also further grow in the future. The subsidiary Accelera, which concentrates on the clean energy business (engines, batteries, fuel cells, electrolysis, etc.), was able to increase turnover to 354 million USD and should in the current fiscal year bump this up to 450 to 500 million USD. This area belongs, via the program Destination Zero, to one of the company’s future fields of focus and requires considerable investment. This division will therefore report a loss this year of 400 million USD, which, however, has its logical basis in the high initial investments. Even so, Accelera alone was already able to build up an order volume for electrolyzers of 500 million USD. The spin-off of the subsidiary Atmus Filtration Technologies to the shareholders (swap offer) is also about to be finalized. Cummins holds over 80 percent in this. The company will be valuated with 1.9 billion USD.
New engine development HELMTM
A share price driver, however, can be the development of a new generation of engines. These units, based on the X15 engine platform, can be operated with natural gas as well as with hydrogen (starting 2028) and e-fuels. HELMTM stands for high efficiency, low emission, multiple fuels. They should accordingly contribute to significantly reducing the diesel demand of today’s customers. Test runs are underway with Walmart and UPS, and also with Paccar for its US class 8 truck Kenworth T680. Cummins is investing 1 billion USD in this project for the time being.
At the current price level – the company has a market capitalization of about 39 billion USD – the current valuation seems sufficient to me, where Cummins is considered a standard stock with a high dividend yield. I would now remember and rather bet on the comparable competitor from China, Weichai Power, as this company is only half as highly valued as Cummins and additionally owns a special potential in the area of hydrogen and fuel cells. Cummins but will go its own way in hydrogen. The subsidiary responsible for this, Accelera, has very high growth potential, which will have a positive impact on the company as a whole in a few years’ time.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
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