Nikola Motors is on the right track. Various test trials of the Tre BEV battery-electric models are running successfully with customers like TTSI, Tiyaji Brothers (for Anheuser-Busch), Univar, Road One (for IKEA) and Covenant (for Walmart). So far, everything with 94 percent manufacturing capacity utilization. In the second quarter, 15 Trev BEVs were produced and 48 delivered. The preliminary quarterly turnover lay at 18.1 million USD.
The loss for the quarter lies at 173 million USD. So a minus of 0.41 USD (GAAP) or 0.25 USD (non-GAAP) per share. Included are the legal fees in association with company founder Trevor Milton in the amount of 13 million USD as well as stock-based compensation in the amount of 54.8 million USD. Also strongly increased freight charges of over 13 million USD were a factor in this. In cash and cash equivalents, Nikola had at the end of the second quarter 529.2 million USD at its disposal and additional equity lines (Tumim/3i) in the amount of 312.5 million USD – which together makes 841.8 million USD.
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The acquisition of the battery manufacturer and supplier Romeo Power for 144 million USD in Nikola shares still lay within the existing authorized capital of up to 600 million shares. Issued were so far 433 million shares as well as 62 million option rights (employee shares and bonus programs) and 71 million shares set aside for convertible bonds. All these together are then 567 million shares with previously authorized capital in the amount of 600 million shares. Now, it could potentially become 800 million shares, since 66 percent of shareholders at the last annual general meeting voted in favor of this. The issuance of shares can now take place from time to time and bit by bit ATM (at-the-market), but that won’t come until 2023 or later, and certainly not at these severely depressed stock prices.
Romeo Power creates independence
Romeo Power was acquired in exchange for shares, so purely with Nikola’s own equity. Romeo should have the potential to sink the annual costs for batteries by 350 million USD by 2026. Together with Romeo Power (former top talent from SpaceX and Tesla had founded the company), Nikola plans to go double-track with the batteries. Romeo, with its production site in the US, is to serve this market, while battery supplier Proterra is to be Nikola’s partner for the European market.
The price to purchase Romeo Power, an equivalence of 144 million USD, corresponds to just nine percent of the stock market value achieved in the meantime. On top of that, Nikola is giving a liquidity grant in the low two-digit million-dollar range to Romeo. What does Elon Musk (Tesla) think of this? Isn’t he himself planning to introduce a battery-electric truck?
Establishment of an H2 infrastructure
In the second quarter, six beta copies of the hydrogen-powered Tre FCEV were sent out for testing. Mass production of these will not start until the second half of 2023. Before that, the H2 fueling stations must be in place. An installation, according to information by the company, takes more than a year, because of the approval process.
So far, the company has launched three H2 fueling stations in California, which are to be in operation the fourth quarter of 2023. So perfect timing in solving the chicken-and-egg problem and freeing hydrogen production. Nikola will operate some H2 fueling stations itself, but also many with partners. Partnerships for this with oil and gas companies are still to come in the current second half of the year.
Modern workspace
NIKOLA_TRE_BEV 7.jpg
Source: Nikola
The Biden administration’s climate act is creating US-wide tax incentives that stretch up to 3 USD per kg of hydrogen. In California, there is an additional subsidy of 3 USD on top, so in total 6 USD per kg can be gotten there. Nikola is assuming that it can self-produce hydrogen for 3 USD per kg. That makes for a very high profit margin.
The factory in Coolidge, Arizona is to have a capacity of 20,000 trucks at the end of the first quarter of 2023 – of both types, the battery-electric and the hydrogen-powered. And it is to be 45,000 units altogether in 2024.
Meanwhile, it became known that out of the cooperation with Iveco in Ulm, Baden-Württemberg – a contract manufacturing agreement – is to now come a closer joint venture, with joint engineering and joint production. My take: Something is coalescing there. Is Iveco, or alternatively parent company CNH, increasing the share in Nikola, which has been 6.7 percent for some time now?
Lohscheller joining the presidents
Board chairman Mark Russell – he pulled Nikola out of rough water (holds about 9.6 percent in Nikola, a value of 260 million USD) – remains on the supervisory board, but will leave his post of CEO to Michael Lohscheller on January 1, 2023 (see also H2-international August 2022). Lohscheller had led the refurbishing of Opel, which today is part of Stellantis. Steve Girsky, former board chairman of GM Europe, is becoming chairman of the supervisory board at Nikola.
Food for speculation
Interesting in this context is that it was General Motors (GM), who was interested in a cooperation with Nikola at the time of CEO Trevor Milton, that was spoken ill of. As it goes, they wanted to build a hydrogen-powered SUV together, and GM was to receive a Nikola share package equivalent to the value of the activities (production/contract manufacturing). The deal fell through for a number of reasons, which are to be found in Milton’s personage.
Could perhaps a cooperation offer itself again, though, with solid support from the top managers of Nikola? This already sounds propitious, since Nikola’s strategy, to offer electricity and hydrogen itself as an energy solution (consumable) and to establish a unique infrastructure network for this, is gaining imitators. Getting involved could give it some speed.
What if Tumim/3i, a VC fund, has started or plans to look for another address for the investment in Nikola (maybe GM or CNH/Iveco?), passing the package on with a markup? Even Tesla could be interested in buying Nikola, after all arguments are weighed. While all vehicle manufacturers have their own strategies for commercial vehicles like trucks, they may find joy in strategic investments in infrastructure and alliances.
Nikola formally offers itself for all this, as the listed market value of 2.6 billion USD is far from the earlier, majorly overstated assessments and there is the opinion that the current stock market value now only reflects the battery area. Former GM managers Lohscheller and Girsky will ensure a new reputation for the company. Does Trevor Milton know something more? He very recently bought 3 million more shares at the price of 5.80 USD per share.
Summary
The stock market still needs convincing, as the share price went from under 5 USD to over 8 USD and then back down below 6 USD. Again were a whopping 78 million shares (mid-August) sold short. If something spectacular were to happen, then Nikola could again be valued completely differently and much higher. Overall, everything is on track. Highly speculative with high hopes.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
FuelCell Energy sees itself as a leader in the CCS sector, where it is a frontrunner as a result of having its own carbon capture technology. With ExxonMobil, FCE has been active in such projects for years. Now the new climate protection program by the Biden administration may provide new potentials for orders, since the tax incentives, with amounts of 60 to 85 USD per tonne of CO2, signify for many affected businesses an impetus, but also a pressure, to upgrade here technologically.
True, it would be logical for cooperation partner ExxonMobil to exert some positive pressure here, but follow-up orders have so far failed to materialize – they’re only doing research together. But also clear: There is now another incentive to avoid CO2 emissions, because you could be charged with penalties otherwise. For FuelCell Energy, this is surely a turbocharge for new orders, along with the incentives for the use and storage of emitted CO2.
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For now, we’re waiting until there are concrete orders. The Inflation Reduction Act will have a positive effect either way. The company, however, must prove this with orders. Currently, it’s valued at about 2 billion USD. With over 400 million USD in the bank, FCE takes sufficient account of current developments. For comparison, Bloom Energy has an order backlog of over 8.5 billion USD and already makes 1 billion USD turnover. According to statements by the company, FCE plans to generate a turnover of 300 million USD by 2025, and increase this to over 1 billion USD by year 2030, with a simultaneous sharp increase in profit margin.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
More is unimaginable, looking at the share price development of the past weeks for Bloom Energy: from 16 USD to over 31 USD, corresponding to a near doubling. The price decline that then occurred was the fault of a type of arbitrage, as Bloom had announced a capital increase at short notice and issued 14.95 million new shares at 26 USD, so traders were able to sell short at over 30 USD and stock up again at 26 USD – a common strategy that explains the recent fall in price.
But the outlook is favorable. The reason is the prospects given by the figures published for the second quarter: Bloom is maintaining a turnover of over 1.1 billion USD for the entire year as well as the targeted growth (30 to 35 percent over the next ten years) and profitability.
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The climate plan within the framework of the already passed Inflation Reduction Act is highly instrumental in this. Bloom is benefitting, according to its own calculation, nine ways from the planned subsidy programs of the Biden administration. Specifically:
Tax credit and/or grant for H2 production of 0.60 to 3 USD per kg
Sales potential of the Energy Server strongly rises
Waste-to-energy segment gets a push to promote biogas applications
E-mobility subsidy programs create potential for home/company on-site charging solutions
Micro-grid deployment receives boost from tax incentive programs (energy security)
Carbon capture tax credits make FC power plants more attractive
Tax credit for production facilities in the USA (Manufacturing Tax Credit)
Subsidy program for regenerative energies
Financing programs for many projects of Bloom’s (direct pay and transferability)
Furthermore, news has reached us that a test program with the Idaho National Laboratory of the DOE (Department of Energy) was very successful and has given proof that the high-temperature fuel cells from Bloom yield 30 percent higher performance than PEM and alkaline electrolyzers. The project involved the use of surplus electricity from a nuclear power plant to produce CO2-free hydrogen from this electricity. For this, Bloom also worked with Westinghouse. It can be assumed that results from these test series will be implemented commercially on a large scale. Westinghouse is technologically involved in over 50 percent of all nuclear power plants.
Independent energy supply via Bloom Energy Server
PHOTO – Utility.jpg
Source: Bloom
The increasing demand globally for energy generated CO2-free is giving wings to all aspects of Bloom’s business model. It’s about energy security and issues like sustainability. For the pilot project of a dairy farm of CalBio, Bloom received the U.S. Dairy Sustainability Award. Manure and dung from cows serve as the basis for the production of biogas, which is then used in fuel cells and equally as an energy supply source for battery-electric vehicles – all in one. Follow-up projects can emerge from this pilot worldwide.
Bloom sees itself on its best path to offering alternatives in energy production. Also energy security through FC power plants as micro-grids that are not connected to the public grid belongs to the future that many companies, as well as customers such as hospitals and data centers, are counting on. Bloom offers technological solutions. The electrolysis capacity is to reach 2.5 GW by the end of 2023 – an enormous leap for hydrogen.
Figures for the second quarter
Turnover in the second quarter amounted to 243 million USD, which was within the range of expectation. The non-GAAP loss lay at 118.8 million USD, which included, among other things, a depreciation of over 40 million USD. Per share, a minus of 0.20 USD non-GAAP and of 0.67 USD GAAP. And 1 GW of new annual energy output has been installed with the recent opening of the production facility in Fremont, California. There, 400 new employment positions will be created.
With the introduction of the new generation of Energy Servers, the operating profit margin will move, which currently lies at 20 percent (target: 24 percent non-GAAP gross margin). The turnover for the entire year is to rise to over 1.1 billion USD. Which means that the two quarters of the second half will see very high growth.
Motley Fool about Bloom
The US stock exchange service Motley Fool has named two companies that are expected to have above-average growth, in terms of stock price performance as well. Bloom Energy is one of them. Many arguments you’re already sufficiently familiar with.
The meaning is: You indeed have to go through thick and thin and keep calm, but at the end of the day, the investment pays off. Just look at the trends of the future, and commit to companies that have a leading technological role there and have a growth plan for good positioning in this new market. Bloom has acknowledged the signs of the times with its SOFC fuel cell systems and electrolyzers. With these, clean energy can be gotten – whether via natural gas, biogas or hydrogen. In addition, Bloom also possesses electrolysis knowhow and will itself be producing green hydrogen.
By 2026, Bloom wants to already be making 2.5 to 3 billion USD from sales. And by 2030, it is to be already 8 to 10 billion USD from FC systems alone. A global market on the order of 1.4 trillion USD. Furthermore, 7 to 10 billion USD more is to come through electrolysis, carbon capture technology and maritime applications – with an annual growth of altogether 30 to 35 percent. The gross profit margin Bloom sees at 30 percent and net profit margin at 15 percent.
“In all its businesses, Bloom Energy has a long growth runway. The company’s focus on growth, while keeping costs in check, bodes well for its long-term success, as well as the price of its stock.”
Motley Fool
MSC meanwhile plans to commission two cruise ships with hydrogen fuel cells. Investment sum: 3.5 billion USD. Maybe Bloom’s involved? Soon, Bloom is also building an FC power plant of 1 MW for luxury auto manufacturer Ferrari.
Summary
Bloom is well on the way to achieving the high targets it has set itself. Bloom has several big fantasies, which can be traced back to the technological successes of the company. It addresses the right markets and is receiving major support in many new markets from the Inflation Reduction Act. Major customer and shareholder SK ecoplant now needs to send the second tranche in the amount of 250 million USD out of the total investment of over 550 million USD.
Verdict: Any major dip as a result of profit-taking should be used for additional purchases, since the sustained goal of long-term high growth of 30 percent p. a. will also be reflected in the performance of the share price. Special developments might also come through big orders. My goal: 100 USD three years from now, 50 USD in 2023.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
Ballard Power is going merrily – one could say “unperturbed” – on its way. The Canadian company already has production capacity at its central location in Vancouver in addition to a completed fuel cell production facility in China for, among other things, buses and trucks. Ballard is investing heavily in research and development and is building a network of strategic partnerships that will eventually lead to mass production for various markets.
Concurrently, Ballard is working on the permanent optimization of its FC products. Which will ultimately reflect in lower prices and will make these products particularly competitive as well as widen the profit margin in the course of scaling. All very normal.
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After test projects, Ballard will enter mass production with various partners and OEMs. According to information by the company, this will begin in the second half of 2023 and experience a massive ramp-up in the following years, since the markets addressed (commercial vehicles, etc.) have a very high and very long-term growth potential, built on the decarbonization trend.
Ballard is doing everything right. Logical losses in this phase of transformation are normal. That must be understood by investors first. Ballard is increasingly making commitments with partners and customers that are not in competition with its own business model and is making a joint course of action in the interest of all virtually inevitable. With around 1 billion USD in the bank, Ballard can very well do all this on its own.
With regard to the Inflation Reduction Act (see above), Ballard is directly participating in several ways. The Canadians are going to build their own stack manufacturing facility in Oregon (4,500 stacks per year as target), in order to be eligible for government incentives (manufacturing tax credits). On top of that, Ballard is benefitting from the tax credit of 40,000 USD for any commercial vehicle with a battery-electric or fuel cell drive. This provision now applies to the entire USA. Accompanying that is a special program in which 1.1 billion USD annually in funding is to be directly invested on buses with battery or fuel cell systems. Ballard is a direct beneficiary here in various ways. Which sets it up for future growth.
Meaningful engagement with Forsee Power
Forsee Power, a French battery specialist that Ballard has a share in, is building another production facility in the US, in the state of Ohio. In a press release, it is explicitly pointed out how perfectly the battery solutions from Forsee synergistically fit the fuel cell applications from Ballard. The two companies are working on complete, pre-integrated powertrain solutions.
Forsee Power saw a very depressed price of around 2.50 EUR in July 2022, which rapidly increased to 4.50 EUR in the past few weeks. The company reports very good figures for the first half of the year: 49.7 million EUR turnover, which corresponds to an increase of 34 percent. Ballard Power is one of the largest shareholders and, at the same time, a strategic partner. Forsee’s batteries are perfectly suited for use in the buses of Wrightbus, for which they’ve received an order for 420 battery systems. In addition, they will likely be put into use in buses by Iveco France as well as 20 trash collection vehicles from Ballard Motive, or even in ships or other applications.
The planning of a production facility in the US is, especially considering the support there from the Inflation Reduction Act, perfect in timing. For 2027, Forsee plans to achieve a turnover of 600 million EUR, according to the current press release. A thought: Would a full takeover by Ballard not also be an option, like Nikola did with Romeo Power, to be better- and more independently positioned?
Siemens Mobility sold seven Mireo Plus H units to the Heidekrautbahn project in Berlin/Brandenburg
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Source: Siemens
Ballard partner Siemens Mobility meanwhile reports another order for seven hydrogen-powered trains – Ballard inside. As we heard directly from the company, there will be a new guidance for year 2023 and so on at the investor day in November. This is exciting – we expect a lot to come out of this.
In the meantime, a supplementary appointment was made to the executive board with David Mucciacciaro as Chief Commercial Officer. He worked top positions at Magna, TRW, Lear and ZF, and is expected to drive the commercialization of some of Ballard’s FC products.
Unspectacular figures in the second quarter
Viewed objectively, the current figures are not very spectacular. They correspond to a time frame in which Ballard is positioned for high future growth. This will really gain momentum in the coming years. Specifically: 20.9 million USD turnover and a loss that, with minus 0.19 USD per share, will affect the books. The order backlog amounts to 91 million USD. Some expected orders have been pushed to the next quarter. For the next twelve months, however, the Canadian company expects “important platform wins.” Like with companies such as Siemens in certain markets. From them, large orders are to come in, but also from other markets such as marine and stationary FC systems.
The stock market will allow the expected developments for 2023 onward to unfold in the anticipated price development, is my conviction, based on my own experience. People have to really understand how the company is positioning itself in the new megatrend market of fuel cells and hydrogen. Here, one year is nothing compared to the enormous price potential when production gets to ramping up in all the addressed markets, such as buses, trucks, ships and railways.
Ballard also cannot be compared with companies like Plug, Nel or Bloom, as they have completely different business models. The current turnover is due to pilot projects and small batches, so the number itself, as well as the reported loss, which are based on the large research expenditures (R&D), do not have the relevance that some investors, and also analysts, would like to read in.
Often argued is the disproportion between turnover and stock market valuation. Forget these comparisons. Via Ballard, you can bet on future markets that have a huge growth potential in terms of energy and sustainability (decarbonization). Demand for FC modules and stacks will drive the growth of the company. Special occurrences could also become a driver of the price, for example if Ballard is able to get itself investors like the Adani Group from India or start joint ventures with major companies (platform partners) in various FC markets.
In summation: Do not be unsettled by the low price quotations. Some clear advice: Buy and leave alone, and don’t get rattled. Ballard is not making a splash, but will probably achieve its goals, even if it takes longer than expected. The journey is the destination.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The integration of Siemens Gamesa will not be a quick job. The attributable losses will still burden the results of parent company Siemens Energy for several quarters. That is, until the results of the reorganization, the pooling of purchasing power (cost reduction potential) and other measures are reflected in better figures, according to our analysis. Because what ultimately counts is the stimulation of the growth of the corporate group as a whole, and this could not be better, at least in the area of hydrogen.
Interesting is that the share price has left its low and is gradually changing direction – because the stock market anticipates the future. The reported loss of 533 million EUR in the third quarter (fiscal year) is therefore still primarily attributable to the problem-making subsidiary (minus 446 million EUR), but also to the account of one-time effects like the termination of activities in Russia at a cost of 200 million EUR. Supply chain problems and increased costs for supplies and raw materials will continue to accompany the Group.
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Nevertheless, the order books are full to bursting and, according to other calculation models, will lead to high-margin turnovers. The planned staff reduction (2,500 positions) will also have an impact. There are also many real synergies that can be leveraged if there is a combination of wind turbines and electrolyzers out at sea at the same time, enabling production of hydrogen at low cost and stationing Siemens Energy as a one-stop shopping partner for customers that are interested in total solutions. Managing director Christian Bruch accordingly described the order intake as “fantastic.” Verdict: For us, a clear “buy on bad news.”
Cooperation with Air Liquide
With the joint venture of Siemens Energy and Air Liquide, two heavyweights in the area of hydrogen and electrolysis are joining forces, with Air Liquide holding 25.1 percent and Siemens 74.9 percent in the JV. Together, the two companies want to get going a production facility for PEM electrolyzers at the site in Berlin. In addition, joint research activities in the field of electrolysis are being established. They are planning joint H2 projects like a 200-MW electrolyzer in Normandy. They intend to jointly apply for funding support from the EU. Verdict: Such JVs, in which complementary players jointly develop projects, will now become more and more common in the hydrogen industry (see p. 8). There, Siemens Energy, and likewise Air Liquide, have the best of positionings.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
Plug Power sees enormous potential for the company arising from the Inflation Reduction Act, as it benefits in a variety of ways from it. These are research grants, tax incentives, subsidies for hydrogen, or tax support for new production facilities in the US (manufacturing tax credits).
At the end of the second quarter, Plug remained at a minus of 173.3 million USD (previous year: minus 99.6 million USD), or a minus of 0.30 USD per share. Reported loss: 329 million USD in the first half of the year. This is certainly also due to the massive investments made by Plug in various projects and in the development of production capacities (gigafactories). After all, electrolysis capacities to a volume of 1.5 GW are now in the books, as we have reported. Turnover is to reach 900 to 935 million USD this year, mainly stemming from large customers like Amazon. In the bank still lie funds in the amount of about 3 billion USD, which however corresponds to a high capital outflow. At the stock market, Plug is again valued at over 17 billion USD.
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FC forklift truck with H2 refueling station from Plug
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With Amazon, Plug recently concluded an offtake agreement for 11,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year. With this, 15,000 forklift trucks can be powered. There is to be a total of 20,000. And the so far 70 shipping centers in which forklifts are driven for Amazon is to grow to 100. For the end of 2022, Plug forecasts being able to itself produce 70 tonnes of green hydrogen per day.
The share will move with the news developments in the hydrogen segment, even if many expectations about the future have already made it into the stock market valuation.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
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