To establish a functioning hydrogen economy, the entire value chain must be addressed. It is important to keep in view the market and regulatory aspects as well as the technical aspects (standardization). At the event GAT 2023 in September in Cologne, it could be seen how intensively the industry is working on the implementation. Exciting here are, among other things, the conversion plans of the gas grid operators towards climate-neutral gases. The second phase of the GTP also shows the great interest on the part of municipalities and the industrial sector.
Dr. Kirsten Westphal made clear how the German association for energy and water economy (Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft, BDEW) see the heating market of the future: “Instead of natural gas, in the future especially hydrogen and its derivatives will be employed,” said the member of top management at the event in Cologne. The hydrogen will come from domestic production as well as a considerable portion from imports. The BDEW is not worried that it will come to a deficit situation. “The studies show that sufficient quantities of hydrogen will be able to be made available,” stated Westphal.
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However, the ramp-up of hydrogen production requires the right framework conditions. Regarding this, the BDEW representative counts in addition to the acceleration and strengthening of the expansion of renewable energies in Germany also the quick notification of IPCEI projects (Important Projects of Common European Interest) for hydrogen production by the EU, which will then actually occur at the end of the year (see p. 20), as well as other supplementary funding programs to reach the electrolysis capacity target of 10 GW in year 2030.
On the import side, Westphal is calling on politicians to present an import strategy in the short term. Furthermore, the financing of import projects should also be flanked by measures such as Hermes cover (export credit guarantees) or capital subsidies.
Establishment of a functioning H2 trading market
One aspect of particular importance, however, is to embed the ramp-up of hydrogen production in the development of a market. In each of the various phases in this, different political instruments are needed: to begin, more steering and support; later, a growing market and less support. The visualized goal is a functioning trading market in which hydrogen volumes are efficiently distributed according to market-based mechanisms.
But what characterizes the image of the targeted steady-state hydrogen market? In Cologne, the BDEW expert named a whole bundle of criteria:
Production and trade of hydrogen and its derivatives in Germany, the EU and globally in sufficient quantities
The combination of long-term contracts (particularly at import level) with competitive prices that reflect current market conditions as well as increasing spot deliveries
The trading of guarantees of origin, certificates and commodities on a uniform, standardized European market that includes an international connection
Competition for access to end customers as well as transparent price signals and sufficient market liquidity on the supplier side
A fully functional and comprehensive network infrastructure. Non-discriminatory grid access for all competitive players on the hydrogen market. H2 grid access is essentially based on the entry-exit system.
Climate-neutral hydrogen is used wherever there is demand. Demand is based on the market price.
Storage options ensure security of supply for hydrogen and derivatives and open up various ways to make the hydrogen market flexible. There is decentralized generation and purchase as well as central storage.
In all these projects are, according to Westphal, a transparent and reliable standardization as well as certification needed, to also create acceptance for hydrogen and its derivatives, which also needs a stable regulatory framework.
Standardization of particular importance
The establishing of standards is also the means of choice from the view of Dr. Thomas Gößmann. According to the Thyssengas chairman, it should be borne in mind that the approval offices have had little contact with the topic of hydrogen until now and therefore have no experience in most cases.
For Germany as an export country, the agreement on international standards is of particular importance, stated Oda Keppler, ministerial director at the German ministry for education and research (BMBF), at GAT. This applies, among other things, for the quality criteria for the product hydrogen, as otherwise the international trading of it could not be done.
For the success of the hydrogen economy, it is crucial, according to Gößmann, to involve the people. “If the country of engineers succeeds in taking the people with it, then we will also succeed,” the Thyssengas chairman is certain. It is also important not to focus too much on the color principle of the hydrogen. This is hardly comprehensible for many people anyway. “We are colorblind. We’re setting up the highway. It doesn’t matter to us who drives on it,” said the grid operator.
Dr. Frank Reiners is certain that the hydrogen economy will only really take off when the entire value chain is populated. According to the member of the management board of Open Grid Europe, however, pipeline construction is of particular importance. Germany as a hub has a special role and responsibility here, as many gas pipelines come on land or come together here. “We cannot afford to do nothing,” stated Reiners in Cologne.
Prof. Gerald Linke, chairman of the DVGW, said at the opening of the industry event GAT in Cologne, “The backbone network must provide all regions in Germany with access to climate-neutral hydrogen.”
H2 core network for all regions
The German association for gas and water standards (Deutscher Verein des Gas- und Wasserfaches, DVGW) welcomes the federal government’s initiative, in an amendment to the energy industry act (Energiewirtschaftsgesetz), to establish a legal framework for the rapid approval and construction of a hydrogen core network. However, to the DVGW, this approach does not go far enough. “The backbone network must provide all regions in Germany with access to climate-neutral hydrogen, as otherwise an exiting of entire economy sectors is imminent, especially the small and medium enterprises,” said the DVGW chairman Prof. Gerald Linke at the industry event.
In a second step, transformation regulation for gas distribution grids is therefore also needed. Without an extensive conversion of the existing gas distribution infrastructure, it will not be possible to transform the connections of 1.8 million industrial and commercial customers toward climate neutrality, stressed Linke.
The basis for the transport to end customers has been laid out in the so-termed Gasnetzgebietstransformationsplan (gas grid area transformation plan, GTP) by the DVGW together with the initiative H2vorOrt. In the current second planning year, 241 gas distribution system operators have participated, a significant increase compared to the 180 companies in the previous year. Currently, the GTP covers pipelines with a total length of 415,000 km (258,000 mi) and reaches 381 of the total 401 regional districts of Germany.
The planning process with the GTP is deliberately designed to be open-ended and includes the conversion, decommissioning and partial new construction of pipelines. Considered are all new, climate-neutral gases, so in addition to hydrogen also for example biomethane. The aim of the GTP is to accelerate the transformation at the distribution grid level and, by the individual planning of the grid operators in coordination with the other stages of the supply chain, to create a coherent vision for the whole of Germany. As part of the GTP planning, the grid operators are analyzing on the basis of their specific situations on site the demands of their customers, the decentralized feed-in situation, the development of hydrogen availability by upstream network operators and the technical suitability of their networks for hydrogen.
For the first time in Germany, the conversion of a long-distance gas pipeline to transport hydrogen has begun at OGE Verdichterstation Emsbüren
Municipalities and industry are planning with hydrogen
Part of the GTP is also a survey of end customers by the respective network operators. This revealed a clear preference for the use of climate-neutral gases. Only five percent of the nearly 1,000 surveyed municipalities see no need in the long term for the use of climate-neutral gases. Of the nearly 2,000 major industrial customers who responded, more than three quarters are relying on hydrogen in the future. And 29 percent already see the use of hydrogen as an option by 2030, while a further 30 percent expect this in the coming decade.
Some current projects show that these visions are already currently being implemented. For example, mid-October at Verdichterstation Emsbüren, a compressor station of grid operator OGE in Niedersachsen, was the start of the conversion of the first long-distance pipeline to transport hydrogen (see Fig. 3). As part of the project GET H2 Nukleus, this is to establish the core for a nationwide hydrogen infrastructure. With the changeover, the participating network operators want to enable customers from industry and SMEs to connect to the hydrogen supply.
Most of the municipalities surveyed, according to the DVGW poll, are counting on climate-neutral gases in the long term
Another project started at the beginning of November in Energiepark Bad Lauchstädt with the start of the second phase of the conversion of a natural gas pipeline for the transport of hydrogen. For the technically seamless operation of the grid of the future of transmission system operator Ontras Gastransport, a pig launcher was placed in position. The following months will be preparation for putting into operation the hydrogen pipeline. For this, the construction of a transfer station as well as setting up a system for purifying and drying the gas are necessary. Once Energiepark Bad Lauchstädt is fully operational in year 2025, test transfers of hydrogen will follow, scientifically accompanied by DBI-GTI (DBI Gastechnologisches Institut gGmbH Freiberg), an independent laboratory of the DVGW.
Such projects help to increasingly address the locational advantages of the continent. At GAT in Cologne, Prof. Thomas Thiemann of Siemens Energy summed up the situation as follows: “With its large pipeline network and storage facilities, Europe has a huge asset compared to other areas. We must exploit this advantage.”
Out of the surveyed industrial customers, 76 percent are interested in hydrogen
Study: Green hydrogen not more expensive than gas in the long term
End customer prices for green hydrogen in the medium and long term could be in the range of natural gas or the current subsidization threshold of natural gas of 12 euro-cents per kWh (Gaspreisbremse). That is what the study by Frontier Economics on behalf of the DVGW determined. If total costs are compared – so costs for acquisition, building renovation and operation, – then the cost for both single-family and multi-family houses with a gas boiler powered by hydrogen, depending on building type and efficiency class, lie at a similar level to an electrically run heat pump. In the study, the total costs of various energy carriers for households as well as for exemplary heat supply solutions were compared with each other.
For the cost comparison, indicative end customer prices based on production costs were used. In addition to the prices for gaseous energy sources, the DVGW study also compares the total costs that households may incur depending on the heat supply solution. Because if the goal is to meet the climate targets, heat generation for buildings in Germany must be fundamentally changed, according to the DVGW.
The aim of the investigation is, on the one hand, to put the end customer prices of green hydrogen in relation to alternative energy sources for households in the years 2035 and 2045. On the other hand, the analysis focuses on the total costs of different heat supply solutions for two selected building types in the efficiency classes B and D. Considered are green gas boilers based on biomethane and climate-neutral hydrogen as well as heat pumps.
Overall, the comparison shows that the cost ratios of the energy sources change over the period under review. While end customer prices for climate-neutral hydrogen in Germany are expected to remain above those for natural gas and biomethane until 2035, they could reach a comparable level by 2045.
Households in Germany would therefore have to pay between 12 and 17 euro-cents per kWh for hydrogen in 2035. The price of natural gas, on the other hand, taking rising CO2 prices into account, would be between 9 and 11 euro-cents per kWh, and that for biomethane just above, at around 10 to 13 euro-cents per kWh, depending on the biomass used in its production.
After 2035, end customer prices for hydrogen could fall and approach those of natural gas. The main drivers for this include the degression of costs for H2 production and rising CO2 prices in the context of emissions trading. In year 2045, according to the study, purchase prices for hydrogen could then lower to around 11 to 15 euro-cents per kWh.
In autumn 2023 as well, the Hydrogen Technology Expo was again the event you had to be at. For the third time in a row, the British organizer Trans-Global Events Ltd was able to dramatically increase the number of exhibitors as well as visitors – which is why the trade fair halls of the Hanseatic city on the Weser (Bremen) will no longer be sufficient in 2024. The move to Hamburg this year is therefore inevitable and had been predicted early on by H2-international (see H2-international Feb. 2023).
The trend is unmistakable: More and more companies from the mechanical engineering, electrical and chemical industries are flooding the hydrogen market. Accordingly, a large number of completely new exhibitors could be found in the four trade fair halls in Bremen. Among them were numerous unknown names, but also heavyweights such as Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil or ITM Power.
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After 180 exhibitors in the first and 350 in the second year, this time there were over 550 – in 2024, there should be at least 100 more. The number of visitors increased from 5,000 in the previous year to over 10,000.
Moving towards mass production
Companies like the chemicals corporation Gore had explicitly “chosen this trade show in Europe” because “Europe is furthest along.” Nouchine Humbert, Global Marketing Director of W.L. Gore, told H2-international, “This is a market where we expect strong growth.” Referred to is particularly the electrolysis sector, because in comparison fuel cells need “many more square meters than electrolyzers.”
Sufficient production capacity is available to the North American company – in Japan. The production lines there are enough for another five years, asserted Rainer Enggruber, director of the division PEM/water/electrolysis products. Gigawatt announcements are therefore not a challenge for the membrane manufacturer, it was confidently stated.
New tubular reactor
An innovation was shown by the Hebmüller Group. Sales director Marc Hebmüller presented the prototype of the HydroGenMHD (see Fig. 1), an H2 generation device from One Scientific of Johnson City, Tennessee. The company Hebmüller is the European licensee of the US system developer that developed this compact tubular catalyst, in whose magnetohydrodynamic chamber hydrogen is generated upon splitting off of oxygen from water vapor.
Marc Hebmüller explained: “This innovative technology employs a unique system where superheated steam is subjected to a catalyst and intense magnetic fields generated through the MHD process. These magnetic fields induce controlled plasma dynamics within the feedstock, facilitating the dissociation of molecules into hydrogen gas and oxygen gas.”
Stack based on circuit boards
A completely new concept for the production of fuel cells was presented by Bramble Energy: a fuel cell stack based on printed circuit board technology. The British company founded in 2017 relies here on the plastic FR4, which provides the necessary stability, and copper as a heat as well as electricity conductor. Between two circuit boards is one membrane each, which means that bipolar plates can be dispensed with entirely. Instead, a monopolar plate constitutes a single cell, of which several are then stacked.
The technology readiness level Carsten Pohlmann, director for business development (see Fig. 2), puts at TRL 9, and the price per kilowatt at 100 USD. First tests in a Renault demonstrator and with a 100 kW system for a double-decker bus are already underway.
Carsten Pohlmann presented in Bremen for the first time the circuit board cell from Bramble
The next Hydrogen Technology Expo Europe will take place October 23 and 24, 2024 on the fairgrounds of Messe Hamburg. It therefore will overlap by one day with WindEnergy.
Mike Blicker will be the new project coordinator of the Norddeutsches Reallabor (Northern German real-world lab, NRL), a joint project on the use of green hydrogen in practice. To test different paths to a climate-neutral energy system, more than 50 partners from commerce, academia and politics have joined forces to form this real-world laboratory, which will be supported by the German ministry for economy and climate protection (BMWK) as well as ministry for transport and digital infrastructure (BMDV). The environmental engineer and process engineer had provisionally taken over the director function after the death of the previous project coordinator, Professor Dr. Werner Beba, and was before that his deputy. Moreover, Blicker was a research member of the NRL working groups “Wärme und Quartiere” (heating and neighborhoods) as well as “Industrie,” and he was part of the management of the HAW research project X-Energy.
Prof. Werner Beba established the Norddeutsches Reallabor, and managed it with great commitment and personal conviction. At the same time, he was director of the Competence Center für Erneuerbare Energien und Energieeffizienz (CC4E) at the university of applied sciences Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften Hamburg (HAW). In February of this year, he passed away at the age of 66 after a serious illness. His successor as director of the CC4E will be Hans Schäfers, who since 2017 has been Professor for intelligent energy systems and energy efficiency at HAW Hamburg, and within the NRL was already leading the working group “Gesamtintegration” (overall integration). The environmental engineer and former energy consultant Schäfers will now also be a new member of the NRL project direction group, a position likewise held by Werna Beba.
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Beba, born in Bremen 1956, after his studies at the military academy Helmut-Schmidt-Universität in Hamburg, joined the management of the media corporation Gruner+Jahr, where he worked, among other things, as managing director of the publishing house. In 2008, the economist moved over to HAW Hamburg, took over as chair of marketing there and founded the CC4E, an interdisciplinary center that works on the system integration of renewable energies including storage and sector coupling. With his communication talents, the former media manager succeeded in getting very different people from research, business and politics interested in the necessity of the energy transition and climate protection.
The Apex Group is expanding its management team from five to six people. Starting the new year, Axel Funke will be chief technology officer, and will be responsible for the division project handling and engineering. The 58-year-old mechanical engineer has been active in plant engineering for 30 years, and previously worked for companies such as Bilfinger, Thyssenkrupp Industrial Solutions and Linde. He directed, among other things, large international projects in the energy sector and, for example, while at Thyssenkrupp Industrial Solutions participated in the planning and design of the project HyLIOS, which included the delivery of a 2.2‑GW electrolyzer to Neom, Saudi Arabia.
Apex has belonged for one year to the Exceet Group. Roland Lienau, chairman of Exceet, said: “Following the recent appointment of Bert Althaus as CFO, the management is now staffed across all areas with top personnel. Also on the operational side, Apex has hired more than 20 engineers since the acquisition by Exceet in January 2023. We are therefore equipped to realize our growth strategy.”
What should be read from: “Siemens Energy rescued.” Was the company on the verge of bankruptcy? By no means. It was about securing orders – and there the company has a volume of over 112 billion euros in the books – through guaranties that were no longer available after the spin-off from parent company Siemens. The extremely high loss of 4.6 billion EUR for the past financial year is based on the ailing wind subsidiary Siemens Gamesa. There were already provisions made for this, though, and through the sale of the participation in the Indian subsidiary in the amount of 18 percent for 2.1 billion EUR by Siemens, enough capital is available to stem the losses. Now the banks (with 7.5 billion euros partly reinsured by the federal government) and former parent company Siemens will lay out a total of 15 billion EUR in guaranties for Siemens Energy. The company is paying a customary commission for this. Whether these guaranties will ever have to be used may be doubted – they are pro forma collateral.
Shares in the Indian subsidiary go to Siemens
How massively Siemens Energy is undervalued at the stock exchange is shown by a glance at the Indian subsidiary. In India, Siemens Energy holds about 25 percent in Siemens India Ltd., in which parent company Siemens is also a participant. Here comes the unbundling: Siemens is assuming 18 percent plus 5 percent as collateral, among other things, for the fee for the use of the naming rights. To put it positively: The more collateral in the form of guaranties, the more orders can be taken in and at the end of the day money earned. On the other hand: If Siemens Energy had not been able to provide the collateral (guaranties), rating agencies might have lowered the credit rating, which would have had additional costs (increased interest rates for example) as a consequence.
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That Siemens Energy must pay 250 million euros every year to the parent company just to have “Siemens” in its name seems like a rip-off. Because with 25 percent of the share capital of Siemens Energy, Siemens has a market capitalization of only 2 to 2.5 billion EUR, in relation to the 250 million EUR annual fee and with it a secure return in the amount of over ten percent on the part of Siemens. It does not matter whether Siemens Energy makes a profit or loss. The federal government as well as Siemens and participating banks have worked calmly to present the guaranties – you can individually evaluate the projects that Siemens Energy holds in its books.
Difficult times for the entire wind energy sector
Poor figures for the wind power activities of Siemens Gamesa applies to almost all manufacturers in the wind industry. There were prices and conditions that led to losses (higher interest rates, problems in the supply chain, raw material prices, calculations). On top of that were quality and technical problems. Chinese suppliers are sitting in the driver’s seat, because they produce much more cheaply and offer other financing models. Here in Europe, you can only threaten with restrictions and entice with subsidies, if the production is taking place here.
Parent company Siemens self-interested
If Siemens Energy Formerly had letters of comfort from parent Siemens (still holds around 25.1 percent plus another five to six percent indirectly in the Siemens pension fund), the company must now demonstrate these. We’re talking about a volume of 15 billion euros, with which a third of the order volume of 112 billion euros (information from the company) can be hedged. However, the situation is that Siemens Energy did not need capital to be protected from bankruptcy, as the case once appeared at TUI or Commerzbank. The government was directly involved and contributed equity. At Siemens Energy, it was a matter of pure guaranties for existing orders.
Summary: Do not be alarmed. Siemens Energy is, despite the problems of subsidiary Gamesa, well positioned, earns money in important areas and can still be seen as a growth story in the topic of regenerative energy and hydrogen in many applications. The current problems are being solved. In 2026, there should again be a profit for the company as a whole – so Siemens Gamesa will also have a positive contribution then. “Buy on bad news” is the only conclusion that can be drawn from the current situation.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The current situation of the German government appears to be a state of desolation: The constitutional court did not play along as hoped – albeit by the narrowest of margins – and has awarded the Ampel Coalition a 60-billion-euro gap in the budget.
Out of this, a desolate situation for the energy industry could also rise, since many projects that were to be financed via the planned fund for climate action and clean energy Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) have come into question, justifiably or not. The uncertainty is great.
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The situation beforehand was already tense. Decisions from Brussels, for example, have had a long wait time. This was the case with the EU energy directive RED II, RED III and also the IPCEI projects – even though RED III was published on October 31, 2023. If things go well, at the end of the year still, the 37th ordinance on the implementation of the German emissions reduction act (37th BImSchV) could be updated – after twelve years.
This waiting has not exactly encouraged many investors to make their money available for projects for the future. The FID (final investment decision) especially for numerous electrolysis projects is still pending, because the framework conditions are not seen as sufficiently secure.
Not without reason, numerous companies took part in the tender for the Important Projects of Common European Interest. In doing so, they are relying on EU member state funds to reduce their own financial risk.
The price they have to pay for these “gifted” state funds is that they have to abide by the giver’s rules. It also means that they have to put up with it when a decision takes longer in Brussels.
The loud lamentation therefore has a bit of hypocrisy to it, since after all nobody forced them to apply for an IPCEI. They could all have started much earlier on such projects, even at their own risk. But now some of them are sitting there complaining that their originally planned IPCEI project is no longer viable in the form applied for, although it was they themselves who had decided to take this path.
Again and again in this context have there been warnings that companies based in Germany could move abroad to where the framework conditions are supposedly better. Perhaps there are individual companies that will actually take this step. Exactly what their motives are, we will probably never know, but it should be clear that such a decision does not depend solely on the processing time in Brussels but is multifactorial.
And yes, one or two projects will probably never be realized – for whatever reason. Westküste100 is such a project. As a real-world lab it has done valuable work, but “H2 Westküste GmbH will not make a positive investment decision for the planned electrolyzer” can be read on their homepage. And “The reason for it is especially the increased investment costs.”
That may hurt one or the other player, since such a scenario may also threaten other projects. But isn’t it better to stop a recognizably uneconomical project at the right time than to desperately hold on to it and to go through with it against your better judgment? Isn’t it better to acknowledge the altered framework conditions by the now two wars and current energy emergency, and to recalculate?
Because Westküste100 won’t continue does not mean that the energy transition has been canceled, that we are not switching to renewable energies and hydrogen after all. Just because a few companies will produce elsewhere in the future does not mean that value creation will no longer take place in Germany.
The political commitment is there: German economy minister Robert Habeck as well as numerous minister-presidents of the federal states recently emphasized the enormous importance of H2 projects in particular. In addition, a startup scene has now established itself in Germany, which is pushing its way onto the market with new, innovative ideas. Here, investors are called to recognize their potential and make advance investments now at their own risk – without subsidies.
I don’t want to refer to the American e-car manufacturer again, but there exist – even in Europe – players who with a little instinct or a lot of money can make new technologies marketable at the right time.
The energy transition is a gigantic challenge – for everyone. Who, if not Germany, would be better placed to exemplarily show the way and offer suitable products? Instead of seeing the enormous potential that lies in this global upheaval, however, many in this country remain stuck in “German Angst.” It’s bad enough that this term (according to Wikipedia, “typical German hesitancy”) is now commonplace around the world.
The motto should therefore be: “Recognize and leverage potentials to shape a sustainable future together.”
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