In autumn 2023 as well, the Hydrogen Technology Expo was again the event you had to be at. For the third time in a row, the British organizer Trans-Global Events Ltd was able to dramatically increase the number of exhibitors as well as visitors – which is why the trade fair halls of the Hanseatic city on the Weser (Bremen) will no longer be sufficient in 2024. The move to Hamburg this year is therefore inevitable and had been predicted early on by H2-international (see H2-international Feb. 2023).
The trend is unmistakable: More and more companies from the mechanical engineering, electrical and chemical industries are flooding the hydrogen market. Accordingly, a large number of completely new exhibitors could be found in the four trade fair halls in Bremen. Among them were numerous unknown names, but also heavyweights such as Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil or ITM Power.
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After 180 exhibitors in the first and 350 in the second year, this time there were over 550 – in 2024, there should be at least 100 more. The number of visitors increased from 5,000 in the previous year to over 10,000.
Moving towards mass production
Companies like the chemicals corporation Gore had explicitly “chosen this trade show in Europe” because “Europe is furthest along.” Nouchine Humbert, Global Marketing Director of W.L. Gore, told H2-international, “This is a market where we expect strong growth.” Referred to is particularly the electrolysis sector, because in comparison fuel cells need “many more square meters than electrolyzers.”
Sufficient production capacity is available to the North American company – in Japan. The production lines there are enough for another five years, asserted Rainer Enggruber, director of the division PEM/water/electrolysis products. Gigawatt announcements are therefore not a challenge for the membrane manufacturer, it was confidently stated.
New tubular reactor
An innovation was shown by the Hebmüller Group. Sales director Marc Hebmüller presented the prototype of the HydroGenMHD (see Fig. 1), an H2 generation device from One Scientific of Johnson City, Tennessee. The company Hebmüller is the European licensee of the US system developer that developed this compact tubular catalyst, in whose magnetohydrodynamic chamber hydrogen is generated upon splitting off of oxygen from water vapor.
Marc Hebmüller explained: “This innovative technology employs a unique system where superheated steam is subjected to a catalyst and intense magnetic fields generated through the MHD process. These magnetic fields induce controlled plasma dynamics within the feedstock, facilitating the dissociation of molecules into hydrogen gas and oxygen gas.”
Stack based on circuit boards
A completely new concept for the production of fuel cells was presented by Bramble Energy: a fuel cell stack based on printed circuit board technology. The British company founded in 2017 relies here on the plastic FR4, which provides the necessary stability, and copper as a heat as well as electricity conductor. Between two circuit boards is one membrane each, which means that bipolar plates can be dispensed with entirely. Instead, a monopolar plate constitutes a single cell, of which several are then stacked.
The technology readiness level Carsten Pohlmann, director for business development (see Fig. 2), puts at TRL 9, and the price per kilowatt at 100 USD. First tests in a Renault demonstrator and with a 100 kW system for a double-decker bus are already underway.
Carsten Pohlmann presented in Bremen for the first time the circuit board cell from Bramble
The next Hydrogen Technology Expo Europe will take place October 23 and 24, 2024 on the fairgrounds of Messe Hamburg. It therefore will overlap by one day with WindEnergy.
The share price of Weichai Power has risen by almost 50 percent in the last few weeks. The reason is the partnership with BYD in the electrification of large vehicle fleets. A perfect joint venture, it seems. Weichai Power with BYD could – my guess – be pushing the door open to fuel cells, since alongside battery-electric trucks and other commercial vehicles, the fuel cell is perfect for long-haul journeys.
Weichai has a joint venture with Ballard Power in China (51:49), with a capacity of already 20,000 FC modules per year. And Weichai will be one of the main beneficiaries when in China a large subsidy program for fuel cells and hydrogen comes – maybe 2024 or 2025. Weichai is China’s largest diesel engine manufacturer, which is now moving towards e-mobility – comparable with Cummins Engine in the USA. Weichai is also cooperating with Bosch.
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Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
Here, I am cautious. The company, in my opinion, does not yet offer any convincing prospects, expressed in terms of expected growth, orders and sales through the use of its technology, which was also supported by the share price drop to 1 USD. From this very low level, the price has now turned around, driven by the news. It looks as if a gradual rise in the share price is now imminent. FuelCell Energy reports a number of projects in Africa, the USA and Canada. Nigeria for example, plans to generate at least 30 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030 (MoU with Oando Clean Energy).
FuelCell Energy speaks of projects, but so far without naming order values; however, it is clear that demand for FC technologies such as solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) is increasing. In Canada, a project with FuelCell Energy as technology partner was nominated for the Innovation Fund Award. Together with the companies Kinetrics and Bruce Power, the energy production of Ontario Power is to be expanded by hydrogen. And FuelCell Energy is about CO2-free hydrogen in commercial vehicles and about using electricity from nuclear power plants for hydrogen production (surplus electricity). Although this is only a pilot project, orders for high-temperature electrolyzers from FuelCell Energy are expected in the future.
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Summary: The company has a healthy balance sheet structure and sufficient equity for financing. Unfortunately, FuelCell Energy does not yet have a long-term strategy that we can understand as to how FC technology and IP are to be used profitably. Cooperations such as that with ExxonMobil and IBM in the field of carbon capture sound very exciting, but how is money to be earned with such? The share will go its way, especially as support programs (Inflation Reduction Act) and the need for safe, clean energy form the basis for this. An own electricity portfolio (own plants, energy sales via PPA) will form the basis of the company’s earnings in the long term. A perfect FC/H2 share for traders.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The current situation of the German government appears to be a state of desolation: The constitutional court did not play along as hoped – albeit by the narrowest of margins – and has awarded the Ampel Coalition a 60-billion-euro gap in the budget.
Out of this, a desolate situation for the energy industry could also rise, since many projects that were to be financed via the planned fund for climate action and clean energy Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) have come into question, justifiably or not. The uncertainty is great.
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The situation beforehand was already tense. Decisions from Brussels, for example, have had a long wait time. This was the case with the EU energy directive RED II, RED III and also the IPCEI projects – even though RED III was published on October 31, 2023. If things go well, at the end of the year still, the 37th ordinance on the implementation of the German emissions reduction act (37th BImSchV) could be updated – after twelve years.
This waiting has not exactly encouraged many investors to make their money available for projects for the future. The FID (final investment decision) especially for numerous electrolysis projects is still pending, because the framework conditions are not seen as sufficiently secure.
Not without reason, numerous companies took part in the tender for the Important Projects of Common European Interest. In doing so, they are relying on EU member state funds to reduce their own financial risk.
The price they have to pay for these “gifted” state funds is that they have to abide by the giver’s rules. It also means that they have to put up with it when a decision takes longer in Brussels.
The loud lamentation therefore has a bit of hypocrisy to it, since after all nobody forced them to apply for an IPCEI. They could all have started much earlier on such projects, even at their own risk. But now some of them are sitting there complaining that their originally planned IPCEI project is no longer viable in the form applied for, although it was they themselves who had decided to take this path.
Again and again in this context have there been warnings that companies based in Germany could move abroad to where the framework conditions are supposedly better. Perhaps there are individual companies that will actually take this step. Exactly what their motives are, we will probably never know, but it should be clear that such a decision does not depend solely on the processing time in Brussels but is multifactorial.
And yes, one or two projects will probably never be realized – for whatever reason. Westküste100 is such a project. As a real-world lab it has done valuable work, but “H2 Westküste GmbH will not make a positive investment decision for the planned electrolyzer” can be read on their homepage. And “The reason for it is especially the increased investment costs.”
That may hurt one or the other player, since such a scenario may also threaten other projects. But isn’t it better to stop a recognizably uneconomical project at the right time than to desperately hold on to it and to go through with it against your better judgment? Isn’t it better to acknowledge the altered framework conditions by the now two wars and current energy emergency, and to recalculate?
Because Westküste100 won’t continue does not mean that the energy transition has been canceled, that we are not switching to renewable energies and hydrogen after all. Just because a few companies will produce elsewhere in the future does not mean that value creation will no longer take place in Germany.
The political commitment is there: German economy minister Robert Habeck as well as numerous minister-presidents of the federal states recently emphasized the enormous importance of H2 projects in particular. In addition, a startup scene has now established itself in Germany, which is pushing its way onto the market with new, innovative ideas. Here, investors are called to recognize their potential and make advance investments now at their own risk – without subsidies.
I don’t want to refer to the American e-car manufacturer again, but there exist – even in Europe – players who with a little instinct or a lot of money can make new technologies marketable at the right time.
The energy transition is a gigantic challenge – for everyone. Who, if not Germany, would be better placed to exemplarily show the way and offer suitable products? Instead of seeing the enormous potential that lies in this global upheaval, however, many in this country remain stuck in “German Angst.” It’s bad enough that this term (according to Wikipedia, “typical German hesitancy”) is now commonplace around the world.
The motto should therefore be: “Recognize and leverage potentials to shape a sustainable future together.”
Potential innovation center for hydrogen technologies
The German city of Nuremberg is aiming to establish itself as a focal point for green hydrogen technology. The study “Hydrogen in the Nuremberg metropolitan region – analysis of competencies, opportunities and challenges,” which was commissioned by the city’s department of economic affairs and science, is intended to provide guidance to regional stakeholders through recommended courses of action.
Hydrogen in various forms will play an important role in future energy supply. Green hydrogen, produced from renewable electrical energy, holds a number of advantages over the direct use of electricity in many use cases. Moreover, hydrogen will replace, either directly or in a processed form, fossil fuels like coal, crude oil and natural gas in numerous processes. Hydrogen is therefore an important complementary technological component that is necessary for realizing a sustainable energy transition.
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As the European Metropolitan Region of Nuremberg or EMN will also be affected by this fundamental change, locals are concerned with being as well prepared as possible for the emergent hydrogen economy so as to reach both sustainability and economic targets.
EMN’s hydrogen potential
The study was carried out by the Energie Campus Nürnberg in collaboration with other project partners, such as the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU) and Nuremberg Tech. It focuses exclusively on green hydrogen, with the authors pursuing three key objectives: Firstly, they wanted to establish what potential exists and which value chains are present in the region. They also wanted to investigate which business models could be created. The intension was also to make a comparison with other metropolitan regions. In addition, they aimed to explore the provenance of green hydrogen and where it could be deployed.
EMN as a technology exporter
Dr. Sebastian Kolb, who leads the Energy Systems and Energy Economics research group at the Energy Process Engineering section at FAU, explains: “There is a broad base of small- and medium-size enterprises as well as industrial companies in the region. Today, many of these are already involved in the hydrogen economy. Others contribute skills which can be utilized extremely well in the hydrogen field. Additionally, EMN has strong expertise in hydrogen-oriented industrial research and pure science. Network structures are also in place. The primary opportunity for the area exists not so much in the role of producer or user but in the export of key hydrogen technologies.”
One crucial challenge which has been cited is that hydrogen has had limited presence as an energy carrier in the metropolitan region so far. Application potential is said to be low, with few large industrial consumers of hydrogen.
Current situation and future perspectives
Important sections in the study are the description of the current situation, an analysis of the potential, including application and production, simulations and harnessing opportunities. The study’s authors have identified the paper and glass industry, iron foundries, nonferrous metal foundries and the mobility sector as potential users of green hydrogen in EMN.
The Nuremberg climate protection plan forecasts that the mobility and logistics sector will account for 18 percent of total energy consumption in 2030. The study focuses particularly on heavy-duty vehicles with fuel cells as a use for hydrogen in the mobility and logistics sector. The scenarios assume that hydrogen will only be required for this mode of transport, but include the much lower demand of other means of transportation. The result is that heavy-duty vehicles have the greatest potential for using hydrogen-based propulsion systems in EMN. By 2030, 10 percent of all heavy-duty vehicles could have a hydrogen power system. This proportion could increase to 20 percent by 2050. By contrast, hydrogen technology plays virtually no role in rail, aviation and shipping in EMN, according to the study’s findings.
Fig. 2: Trajectories for “Basic” and “Optimistic” scenarios in relation to reference year 2015
Findings and recommended action
In its concluding section, the study outlines recommended courses of action which are divided into three categories:
The development of renewable energies must be greatly accelerated, for example by making photovoltaics obligatory on buildings or by subsidizing resident-owned wind turbines.
Cross-sector research must be supported for key hydrogen technologies. This is expected to improve networking and contact points for hydrogen. Cluster funding is also needed.
A suitable supply structure should be created – despite the hitherto low level of production and demand. This could be coordinated, for instance, by a central point of contact for suppliers and off-takers. “Further specific details are required here: Where will the demand for hydrogen originate? In what form will it be needed? Where is the hydrogen in EMN to be produced?” says Kolb.
What’s more: “Application and production are secondary when it comes to the future role of hydrogen in the region. The small application potential that has been identified is primarily focused on the supply of process heat.” Production is advisable where the infrastructure is already in place, he continues, for example in areas close to wind farms or on the site of power plants.
“The Nuremberg metropolitan region will not be an exporter or large consumer of hydrogen, however, it can provide essential know-how and key technologies for the hydrogen economy. Nevertheless, there will also be consumers in the EMN that rely on hydrogen – particularly for the production of process heat. For these, a suitable supply infrastructure will be needed in the region,” states Kolb.
As for application potential, it is said to be unlikely that industries with a substantial need for hydrogen will locate themselves in the area because of the complexities involved in importing hydrogen via the appropriate infrastructure. Hydrogen can also be used in the metropolitan region for the long-term storage of electricity.
According to the report, EMN can become an innovation center for the development, manufacture, distribution and export of specific key hydrogen technologies. It states that compared with the other metropolitan regions, EMN has a high rate of companies associated with hydrogen technology relocating to the area.
At the moment, hydrogen is – at least in the energy sector – on everyone’s lips. This is also evidenced by research into the latest trends. US corporation Google offers an online service that provides information about the popularity of terms entered into its Google search engine and how it changes over time. The results are given in relation to the total volume of searches and are available week by week from 2004.
The tool provides a striking illustration of the level of interest in a topic – both now and in the past. The performance of the same keyword in different languages can also provide insight into how much attention a subject is receiving in different parts of the world. For example, the tool shows that the German word for “hydrogen” (Wasserstoff) has been Googled much more often since the end of 2018 than in the 15 years prior to that. Peaks occurred in 2020 and 2021. Since then, the popularity of this search term has remained, on the whole, relatively high.
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In German searches, “hydrogen” is looked up far more frequently than the equivalent words for “electric mobility,” “fuel cell,” “wind power” or “digitization.” Though “photovoltaic” is more popular still if you don’t include the spikes in 2020 and 2021. In English-language searches, “hydrogen” is used for many more search inquiries (see fig.) than, for instance, “fuel cell,” “digitization,” “photovoltaic” or even “PV.” While “hydrogen” has remained, on balance, consistently popular for almost 20 years, searches for “fuel cell” were more common at the start of the century.
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